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The long-term impact of (un)conditional cash transfers on labour market outcomes in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Ponce
  • Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on
  • Mercedes Onofa
  • Roberto Castillo

Abstract

Despite the popularity of conditional cash transfers in low- and middle-income countries, evidence on their long-term effects remains scarce. This paper assesses the impact of the Ecuador's Human Development Grant on the formal sector labour market outcomes of children in eligible households. This grant -- one of the first of its kind -- is characterised by weak enforcement of its eligibility criteria. By means of a regression discontinuity design, we find that this programme increased formal employment rates and labour income around a decade after exposure, thereby curbing the intergenerational transmission of poverty. We discuss possible mediating mechanisms based on findings from previous literature and, in particular, provide evidence on how the programme contributed to persistence in school in the medium run.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ponce & Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on & Mercedes Onofa & Roberto Castillo, 2023. "The long-term impact of (un)conditional cash transfers on labour market outcomes in Ecuador," Papers 2309.17216, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.17216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric V. Edmonds & Norbert Schady, 2012. "Poverty Alleviation and Child Labor," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 100-124, November.
    2. Karen Macours & Norbert Schady & Renos Vakis, 2012. "Cash Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 247-273, April.
    3. Barrientos, Armando, 2012. "Social Transfers and Growth: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Find Out?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 11-20.
    4. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00754593 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alessia Matano & Moisés Obaco & Vicente Royuela, 2020. "What drives the spatial wage premium in formal and informal labor markets? The case of Ecuador," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 823-847, September.
    6. Christina Paxson & Norbert Schady, 2010. "Does Money Matter? The Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Development in Rural Ecuador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(1), pages 187-229, October.
    7. Roxana Maurizio & Ana Paula Monsalvo, 2021. "Informality, labour transitions, and the livelihoods of workers in Latin America," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-19, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=32886 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Karen Macours & Norbert Schady & Renos Vakis, 2012. "Cash Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 247-273, April.
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