IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2305.02546.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Not Borrow, Invest, and Escape Poverty?

Author

Listed:
  • Dagmara Celik Katreniak
  • Alexey Khazanov
  • Omer Moav
  • Zvika Neeman
  • Hosny Zoabi

Abstract

Take up of microcredit by the poor for investment in businesses or human capital turned out to be very low. We show that this could be explained by risk aversion, without relying on fixed costs or other forms of non-convexity in the technology, if the investment is aimed at increasing the probability of success. Under this framework, rational risk-averse agents choose corner solutions, unlike in the case of a risky investment with an exogenous probability of success. Our online experiment confirms our theoretical predictions about how agents' choices differ when facing the two types of investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagmara Celik Katreniak & Alexey Khazanov & Omer Moav & Zvika Neeman & Hosny Zoabi, 2023. "Why Not Borrow, Invest, and Escape Poverty?," Papers 2305.02546, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.02546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.02546
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2010. "Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1238-1260, June.
    2. Meager, Rachael, 2022. "Aggregating distributional treatment effects: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the microcredit literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115559, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    4. Omer Moav and & Zvika Neeman, 2012. "Saving Rates and Poverty: The Role of Conspicuous Consumption and Human Capital," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(563), pages 933-956, September.
    5. de Mel, Suresh & McKenzie, David & Woodruff, Christopher, 2009. "Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Determinants of Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises," IZA Discussion Papers 3962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, June.
    7. B. Douglas Bernheim & Debraj Ray & Şevin Yeltekin, 2015. "Poverty and Self‐Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(5), pages 1877-1911, September.
    8. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Narayan Das & Selim Gulesci & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman, 2017. "Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Economies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 811-870.
    9. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 183-203, January.
    10. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
    11. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2003. "Persistent Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 369-393.
    12. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    13. Omer Moav, 2005. "Cheap Children and the Persistence of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 88-110, January.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1997. "A Theory of Trickle-Down Growth and Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(2), pages 151-172.
    15. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    16. J. E. Stiglitz, 1969. "The Effects of Income, Wealth, and Capital Gains Taxation on Risk-Taking," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(2), pages 263-283.
    17. Dilip Mookherjee & Stefan Napel & Debraj Ray, 2010. "Aspirations, Segregation, and Occupational Choice," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 139-168, March.
    18. Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2009. "Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 423-423.
    19. Rachael Meager, 2019. "Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Seven Randomized Experiments," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 57-91, January.
    20. Michael Kremer & Jean Lee & Jonathan Robinson & Olga Rostapshova, 2013. "Behavioral Biases and Firm Behavior: Evidence from Kenyan Retail Shops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 362-368, May.
    21. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    22. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    23. Fafchamps, Marcel & McKenzie, David & Quinn, Simon & Woodruff, Christopher, 2014. "Microenterprise growth and the flypaper effect: Evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 211-226.
    24. Bruno Crépon & Florencia Devoto & Esther Duflo & William Parienté, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Microcredit on Those Who Take It Up: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Morocco," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 123-150, January.
    25. Shawn Cole & Xavier Giné & James Vickery, 2017. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1935-1970.
    26. Clare Balboni & Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Maitreesh Ghatak & Anton Heil, 2023. "Why Do People Stay Poor?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 785-844.
    27. Roland Bénabou, 1996. "Equity and Efficiency in Human Capital Investment: The Local Connection," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(2), pages 237-264.
    28. Kraay, Aart & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Do poverty traps exist ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6835, The World Bank.
    29. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    30. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    31. Esther Duflo & Michael Kremer & Jonathan Robinson, 2011. "Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2350-2390, October.
    32. Durlauf, Steven N, 1996. "A Theory of Persistent Income Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 75-93, March.
    33. Robert M. Townsend, 1995. "Financial Systems in Northern Thai Villages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1011-1046.
    34. Manuela Angelucci & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2015. "Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 151-182, January.
    35. Rachael Meager, 2022. "Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit Literature," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1818-1847, June.
    36. Alessandro Tarozzi & Jaikishan Desai & Kristin Johnson, 2015. "The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Ethiopia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 54-89, January.
    37. Aart Kraay & David McKenzie, 2014. "Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 127-148, Summer.
    38. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    39. McKenzie, David J & Woodruff, Christopher, 2006. "Do Entry Costs Provide an Empirical Basis for Poverty Traps? Evidence from Mexican Microenterprises," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 3-42, October.
    40. Handa, Sudhanshu & Natali, Luisa & Seidenfeld, David & Tembo, Gelson & Davis, Benjamin, 2018. "Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 42-65.
    41. Omer Moav & Zvika Neeman, 2010. "Status and Poverty," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 413-420, 04-05.
    42. Thomas Piketty, 1997. "The Dynamics of the Wealth Distribution and the Interest Rate with Credit Rationing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(2), pages 173-189.
    43. Cicchetti, Charles J & Dubin, Jeffrey A, 1994. "A Microeconometric Analysis of Risk Aversion and the Decision to Self-Insure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 169-186, February.
    44. Meager, Rachael, 2019. "Understanding the average impact of microcredit expansions: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of seven randomized experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88190, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    45. Moav, Omer, 2002. "Income distribution and macroeconomics: the persistence of inequality in a convex technology framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 187-192, April.
    46. Udry, Christopher, 1990. "Credit Markets in Northern Nigeria: Credit as Insurance in a Rural Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(3), pages 251-269, September.
    47. Marianna Battaglia & Selim Gulesci & Andreas Madestam, 2024. "Repayment Flexibility and Risk Taking: Experimental Evidence from Credit Contracts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2635-2675.
    48. Shaw, Kathryn L, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Risk Aversion and Income Growth," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 626-653, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moav, Omer & Khazanov, Alexey & Neeman, Zvika & Zoabi, Hosny, 2018. "The Microfinance Disappointment: An Explanation based on Risk Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 12659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2023. "Financial access and labor market outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries," BIS Working Papers 1071, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.
    4. Ahlin, Christian & Gulesci, Selim & Madestam, Andreas & Stryjan, Miri, 2020. "Loan contract structure and adverse selection: Survey evidence from Uganda," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 180-195.
    5. Bernardus Van Doornik & Armando Gomes & David Schoenherr & Janis Skrastins, 2024. "Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Credit Lotteries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1854-1881, June.
    6. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2009. "Finance and Inequality: Theory and Evidence," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 287-318, November.
    7. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2020. "Taking Stock of the Evidence on Microfinancial Interventions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 173-202, May.
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Financial Frictions: A Macrodevelopment Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 409-436, August.
    9. Koichiro Sano & Yasunobu Tomoda, 2019. "Persistent income gaps in an occupational choice model with multi‐goods," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Cai, Shu, 2020. "Migration under liquidity constraints: Evidence from randomized credit access in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Abhijit Banerjee & Emily Breza & Esther Duflo & Cynthia Kinnan, 2019. "Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap for Some Entrepreneurs?," NBER Working Papers 26346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Daniel Bjorkegren & Joshua Blumenstock & Omowunmi Folajimi-Senjobi & Jacqueline Mauro & Suraj R. Nair, 2022. "Instant Loans Can Lift Subjective Well-Being: A Randomized Evaluation of Digital Credit in Nigeria," Papers 2202.13540, arXiv.org.
    13. Oded, Galor, 2011. "Inequality, Human Capital Formation, and the Process of Development," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 441-493, Elsevier.
    14. Chowdhury, Shyamal & Smits, Joeri & Sun, Qigang, 2020. "Contract structure, time preference, and technology adoption," GLO Discussion Paper Series 633, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Joshua D Merfeld, 2020. "Moving Up or Just Surviving? Nonfarm Self‐Employment in India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 32-53, January.
    16. Oded Galor, 2009. "Inequality and Economic Development: An Overview," Working Papers 2009-3, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    17. Lori Beaman & Dean Karlan & Bram Thuysbaert & Christopher Udry, 2023. "Selection Into Credit Markets: Evidence From Agriculture in Mali," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1595-1627, September.
    18. Pham, Chau, 2021. "Intergenerational human capital,risk aversion, and the poverty trap," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 28, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    19. Manthos D. Delis & Fulvia Fringuellotti & Steven Ongena, 2020. "Credit, Income, and Income Inequality," Staff Reports 929, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Meager, Rachael, 2022. "Aggregating distributional treatment effects: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the microcredit literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115559, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.02546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.