IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2304.02573.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Portuguese Households Savings in Times of Pandemic: A Way to Better Resist the Escalating Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Lucia Luis
  • Natalia Teixeira
  • Rui Braz

Abstract

March 2020 confinement has shot Portuguese savings to historic levels, reaching 13.4% of gross disposable income in early 2021 (INE, 2023). To find similar savings figures we need to go back to 1999. With consumption reduced to a bare minimum, the Portuguese were forced to save. Households reduced spending more because of a lack of alternatives to consumption than for any other reason. The relationship between consumption, savings, and income has occupied an important role in economic thought [(Keynes, 1936; 1937); (Friedman, 1957)]. Traditionally, high levels of savings have been associated with benefits to the economy, since financing capacity is enhanced (Singh, 2010). However, the effects here can be twofold. On the one hand, it seems that Portugal faced the so-called Savings Paradox (Keynes, 1936). If consumers decide to save a considerable part of their income, there will be less demand for the goods produced. Lower demand will lead to lower supply, production, income, and, paradoxically, fewer savings. On the other hand, after having accumulated savings at the peak of the pandemic, the Portuguese are now using them to carry out postponed consumption and, hopefully, to better resist the escalating inflation. This study aims to examine Portuguese households' savings evolution during the most critical period of the pandemic, between March 2020 and April 2022. The methodology analyses the correlation between savings, consumption, and GDP as well as GDP's decomposition into its various components and concluded that these suddenly forced savings do not fit traditional economic theories of savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Lucia Luis & Natalia Teixeira & Rui Braz, 2023. "Portuguese Households Savings in Times of Pandemic: A Way to Better Resist the Escalating Inflation?," Papers 2304.02573, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.02573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.02573
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    2. Dossche, Maarten & Zlatanos, Stylianos, 2020. "COVID-19 and the increase in household savings: precautionary or forced?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    3. Gersovitz, Mark, 1988. "Saving and development," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 381-424, Elsevier.
    4. Holmes, Mark J., 2005. "What do Savings-Investment Correlations tell us about the International Capital Mobility of Less Developed Countries?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 590-603.
    5. R. Basselier & G. Minne, 2021. "Household savings during and after the COVID-19 crisis: Lessons from surveys," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 60-78, december.
    6. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke & Lien Pham‐Dao & Volker Tjaden, 2019. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 255-290, January.
    7. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    9. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    10. Julia Le Blanc & Alessandro Porpiglia & Federica Teppa & Junyi Zhu & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area," BCL working papers 93, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
    13. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    14. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
    15. Julia Le Blanc & Alessandro Porpiglia & Federica Teppa & Junyi Zhu & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area," BCL working papers 93, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    17. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores & Ruiz, Freddy, 2021. "Does Uncertainty Affect Saving Decisions of Colombian Households? Evidence on Precautionary Saving," MPRA Paper 106771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2021. "Macroeconomic disasters and consumption smoothing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jemey, Nursyuhada binti & Kasim, Nor Hasniah binti, 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Consumption Patterns Among Malaysian Youths," MPRA Paper 118841, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Sep 2023.
    5. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    6. Naeem Akram, 2023. "Household’s Saving Behaviour in Pakistan: A Micro-Data Analysis," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 11(2), pages 139-156, August.
    7. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    8. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Influence of economic factors on disaggregated Islamic banking deposits: Evidence with structural breaks in Malaysia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 13-28.
    9. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201610 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2013. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 323-349.
    11. Qazi-Muhammad Adnan Hye & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2018. "Does Financial and Trade Liberalization Drive Private Savings in Pakistan?," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 198-212, December.
    12. Ngwenya, Mthunzi A. & Paas, Leonard J., 2012. "Lifecycle effects on consumer financial product portfolios in South Africa: An exploratory analysis of four ethnic groups," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 8-18.
    13. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Dées, Stéphane & Andersson, Malin & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Forster, Katrin & Zorell, Nico & Audoly, Richard & Buelens, Christian & Compeyron, Guillaume & Ferrando, Annali, 2016. "Savings and investment behaviour in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 167, European Central Bank.
    14. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2015. "Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 771, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    15. Roberto BANDE & Dolores RIVEIRO, 2013. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship In Spain: An Analysis With Regional Data," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-24.
    16. Naeem AKRAM & Muhammad Irfan AKRAM, 2015. "Savings Behaviour In Muslim And Non-Muslim Countries In Context To The Interest Rate," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 161-177.
    17. Stefan Jestl, 2019. "The Impact of Income Inequality on Household Indebtedness in Euro Area Countries," wiiw Working Papers 173, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    18. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2023. "Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data," Staff Working Papers 23-4, Bank of Canada.
    19. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Valério Ercolani, 2016. "The precautionary saving: theories, measurements and policies," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Mevlüt TATLIYER, 2017. "Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from TurkeyAbstract: This paper attempts to ascertain the determinants of private saving level in Turkey. We implemented OLS estimations and constructed ," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.02573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.