IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2304.00539.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Zuleika Ferre
  • Patricia Triunfo
  • Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of fertility among women at different stages of their reproductive lives in Uruguay. To this end, we employ time series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. The results of our first econometric exercise indicate a cointegration relationship between fertility and economic performance, education and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive stage. We find a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20-29 that persists for women aged 30 and over. This result suggests that having children is perceived as an opportunity cost for women in this age group. We also observe a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility, which has implications for the design of public policies. A panel data analysis with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 and above. We outline some possible explanations for these findings in the context of work-life balance issues and argue for the importance of implementing social policies to address them.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & Jos'e-Ignacio Ant'on, 2023. "The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay," Papers 2304.00539, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.00539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.00539
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ainsworth, Martha & Beegle, Kathleen & Nyamete, Andrew, 1996. "The Impact of Women's Schooling on Fertility and Contraceptive Use: A Study of Fourteen Sub-Saharan African Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 85-122, January.
    2. Theodore Joyce & Michael Grossman, 1990. "Pregnancy wantedness and the early initiation of prenatal care," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Jason M. Fletcher & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Teenage Childbearing: Evidence Using the Timing of Pregnancy Outcomes and Community Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    4. Ana I. Balsa & Patricia Triunfo, 2021. "The effects of expanded social health insurance on young mothers: Lessons from a pro‐choice reform in Uruguay," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 603-622, March.
    5. repec:aer:wpaper:150 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vavrus, Frances & Larsen, Ulla, 2003. "Girls' Education and Fertility Transitions: An Analysis of Recent Trends in Tanzania and Uganda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 945-975, July.
    7. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    8. José‐Ignacio Antón & Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo, 2018. "The impact of the legalisation of abortion on birth outcomes in Uruguay," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1103-1119, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & José-Ignacio Antón, 2024. "The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(10), pages 267-322.
    2. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2016. "A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 20-36, March.
    4. Zuleika Ferre & Patricia Triunfo & José‐Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Subdermal contraceptive implants and repeat teenage motherhood: Evidence from a major maternity hospital‐based program in Uruguay," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(12), pages 2679-2693, December.
    5. Gábor Hajdu & Tamás Hajdu, 2021. "The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Gonzalez, Fidel & Quast, Troy, 2022. "The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Gordon Dahl, 2010. "Early teen marriage and future poverty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 689-718, August.
    8. Celhay, Pablo A. & Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Riquelme, Cristina, 2024. "When a strike strikes twice: Massive student mobilizations and teenage pregnancy in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Maria Iacovou, 2013. "The relationship between incomes and living arrangements: variation between countries, over the life course, and over time," ImPRovE Working Papers 13/15, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    10. Dmitriy Gorskiy, 2023. "The maternity capital and probability of second birth in Russia: Explaining the last 10 Years' fertility patterns," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 30, Stata Users Group.
    11. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    12. Goldstone, Jack A. (Голдстоун, Джек) & Korotaev, Andrey (Коротаев, Андрей) & Zinkina, Yulia (Зинькина, Юлия), 2015. "Political Demography of the World Economy: Tropical Africa [Политическая Демография Мировой Экономики: Страны Тропической Африки]," Published Papers mn45, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    14. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    15. Anna Aizer & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2019. "Grandparents, Mothers, or Fathers? Why Children of Teen Mothers do Worse in Life," Working Papers 201908, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    16. Gustav RANIS & Frances STEWART, 2001. "Growth And Human Development: Comparative Latin American Experience," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 39(4), pages 333-365, December.
    17. Janet Currie & Lucia Nixon & Nancy Cole, 1996. "Restrictions on Medicaid Funding of Abortion: Effects on Birth Weight and Pregnancy Resolutions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 159-188.
    18. Kolk, Martin, 2019. "Demographic Theory and Population Ethics – Relationships between Population Size and Population Growth," SocArXiv 62wxd, Center for Open Science.
    19. Lee, Chioun & Ryff, Carol D., 2016. "Early parenthood as a link between childhood disadvantage and adult heart problems: A gender-based approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-66.
    20. Santiago Garganta & María Florencia Pinto & Joaquín Zentner, 2023. "Extended School Day and Teenage Fertility in Dominican Republic," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0317, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.00539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.