IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2209.00822.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal design of lottery with cumulative prospect theory

Author

Listed:
  • Shunta Akiyama
  • Mitsuaki Obara
  • Yasushi Kawase

Abstract

A lottery is a popular form of gambling between a seller and multiple buyers, and its profitable design is of primary interest to the seller. Designing a lottery requires modeling the buyer decision-making process for uncertain outcomes. One of the most promising descriptive models of such decision-making is the cumulative prospect theory (CPT), which represents people's different attitudes towards gain and loss, and their overestimation of extreme events. In this study, we design a lottery that maximizes the seller's profit when the buyers follow CPT. The derived problem is nonconvex and constrained, and hence, it is challenging to directly characterize its optimal solution. We overcome this difficulty by reformulating the problem as a three-level optimization problem. The reformulation enables us to characterize the optimal solution. Based on this characterization, we propose an algorithm that computes the optimal lottery in linear time with respect to the number of lottery tickets. In addition, we provide an efficient algorithm for a more general setting in which the ticket price is constrained. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that employs the CPT framework for designing an optimal lottery.

Suggested Citation

  • Shunta Akiyama & Mitsuaki Obara & Yasushi Kawase, 2022. "Optimal design of lottery with cumulative prospect theory," Papers 2209.00822, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.00822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.00822
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghossoub, Mario, 2019. "Optimal insurance under rank-dependent expected utility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 51-66.
    2. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Thorsten Hens, 2017. "Estimating cumulative prospect theory parameters from an international survey," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 567-596, April.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    5. Akira Maeda, 2008. "Optimal Lottery Design For Public Financing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1698-1718, October.
    6. Rieger, Marc Oliver & Wang, Mei & Hens, Thorsten, 2011. "Prospect Theory around the World," Discussion Papers 2011/19, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    7. Carole Bernard & Xuedong He & Jia-An Yan & Xun Yu Zhou, 2015. "Optimal Insurance Design Under Rank-Dependent Expected Utility," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 154-186, January.
    8. Akira Maeda, 2008. "Optimal Lottery Design for Public Financing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1698-1718, October.
    9. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
    10. Sung, K.C.J. & Yam, S.C.P. & Yung, S.P. & Zhou, J.H., 2011. "Behavioral optimal insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 418-428.
    11. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    12. repec:cup:cbooks:9781316779309 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Zuo Quan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou & Sheng Chao Zhuang, 2019. "Optimal insurance under rank‐dependent utility and incentive compatibility," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 659-692, April.
    14. Roger B. Myerson, 1981. "Optimal Auction Design," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 58-73, February.
    15. Roughgarden,Tim, 2016. "Twenty Lectures on Algorithmic Game Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316624791, October.
    16. Roughgarden,Tim, 2016. "Twenty Lectures on Algorithmic Game Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107172661, October.
    17. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2013. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 173-196, Winter.
    18. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgalos, Konstantinos & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2021. "On the contribution of the Markowitz model of utility to explain risky choice in experimental research," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 527-543.
    2. Alexis DIRER, 2010. "Equilibrium Lottery Games and Preferences Under Risk," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 550, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Ghossoub, Mario & He, Xue Dong, 2021. "Comparative risk aversion in RDEU with applications to optimal underwriting of securities issuance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 6-22.
    4. Boonen, Tim J. & Jiang, Wenjun, 2022. "Bilateral risk sharing in a comonotone market with rank-dependent utilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 361-378.
    5. Zuo Quan Xu, 2021. "Moral-hazard-free insurance: mean-variance premium principle and rank-dependent utility theory," Papers 2108.06940, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    6. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2017. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.
    7. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    8. Dorian Jullien, 2013. "Asian Disease-type of Framing of Outcomes as an Historical Curiosity," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-47, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    9. Stephen G Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Olivia S Mitchell & Kim Peijnenburg, 2021. "Household Portfolio Underdiversification and Probability Weighting: Evidence from the Field," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4524-4563.
    10. Chi, Yichun & Zheng, Jiakun & Zhuang, Shengchao, 2022. "S-shaped narrow framing, skewness and the demand for insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 279-292.
    11. Wakker, Peter P. & Zank, Horst, 2002. "A simple preference foundation of cumulative prospect theory with power utility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1253-1271, July.
    12. Astebro, Thomas B. & Fossen, Frank M. & Gutierrez, Cédric, 2024. "Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?," IZA Discussion Papers 17231, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:6:p:1324-1369 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Olivier L’Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 35-89.
    15. Wakker, Peter P., 2023. "A criticism of Bernheim & Sprenger's (2020) tests of rank dependence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Valeri Zakamouline & Steen Koekebakker, 2009. "A Generalisation of the Mean†Variance Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 934-970, November.
    17. Luc Arrondel & André Masson & Daniel Verger, 2004. "Mesurer les préférences individuelles à l'égard du risque," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 374(1), pages 53-85.
    18. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    19. Phillips Peter J. & Pohl Gabriela, 2018. "The Deferral of Attacks: SP/A Theory as a Model of Terrorist Choice when Losses Are Inevitable," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 71-85, February.
    20. Ranoua Bouchouicha & Ferdinand M. Vieider, 2017. "Accommodating stake effects under prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-28, August.
    21. Michał Lewandowski, 2017. "Prospect Theory Versus Expected Utility Theory: Assumptions, Predictions, Intuition and Modelling of Risk Attitudes," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 275-321, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.00822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.