IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2204.13385.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fuzzy Expert System for Stock Portfolio Selection: An Application to Bombay Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur

    (Mondal)

  • Rupak Bhattacharyya

    (Mondal)

  • Seema Sarkar

    (Mondal)

Abstract

Selection of proper stocks, before allocating investment ratios, is always a crucial task for the investors. Presence of many influencing factors in stock performance have motivated researchers to adopt various Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to make this challenging task easier. In this paper a novel fuzzy expert system model is proposed to evaluate and rank the stocks under Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory is used for the first time to automatically generate the consequents of the fuzzy rule base to reduce the effort in knowledge base development of the expert system. Later a portfolio optimization model is constructed where the objective function is considered as the ratio of the difference of fuzzy portfolio return and the risk free return to the weighted mean semi-variance of the assets that has been used. The model is solved by applying Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm by giving preference to the top ranked stocks. The performance of the model proved to be satisfactory for short-term investment period when compared with the recent performance of the stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur & Rupak Bhattacharyya & Seema Sarkar, 2022. "Fuzzy Expert System for Stock Portfolio Selection: An Application to Bombay Stock Exchange," Papers 2204.13385, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.13385
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.13385
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Xidonas, Panagiotis & Mavrotas, George & Zopounidis, Constantin & Psarras, John, 2011. "IPSSIS: An integrated multicriteria decision support system for equity portfolio construction and selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 398-409, April.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Włodzimierz Ogryczak, 2000. "Multiple criteria linear programming model for portfolio selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 143-162, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pätäri, Eero & Karell, Ville & Luukka, Pasi & Yeomans, Julian S, 2018. "Comparison of the multicriteria decision-making methods for equity portfolio selection: The U.S. evidence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 655-672.
    2. A. Nureize & J. Watada & S. Wang, 2014. "Fuzzy random regression based multi-attribute evaluation and its application to oil palm fruit grading," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 299-315, August.
    3. Panos Xidonas & Christis Hassapis & George Mavrotas & Christos Staikouras & Constantin Zopounidis, 2018. "Multiobjective portfolio optimization: bridging mathematical theory with asset management practice," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 585-606, August.
    4. Constantin Zopounidis & Michael Doumpos, 2013. "Multicriteria decision systems for financial problems," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, July.
    5. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.
    6. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    7. Berg, Joyce E. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2019. "Longshots, overconfidence and efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 271-287.
    8. Oxelheim, Lars & Rafferty, Michael, 2005. "On the static efficiency of secondary bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 117-135, April.
    9. Antonello D’Agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, June.
    10. Habib, Michel A. & Johnsen, D. Bruce & Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "Spinoffs and Information," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 153-176, April.
    11. Dichev, Ilia D. & Qian, Jingyi, 2022. "The benefits of transaction-level data: The case of NielsenIQ scanner data," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
    12. Yue Zhao & Difang Wan, 2018. "Institutional high frequency trading and price discovery: Evidence from an emerging commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 243-270, February.
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2019. "The Informational Role of Prices," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 606-629, April.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, July.
    16. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2018. "Information Aggregation in Emissions Markets with Abatement," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 132, pages 53-79.
    17. Vuciterna, Rina & Thomsen, Michael & Popp, Jennie & Musliu, Arben, 2017. "Efficiency and Competitiveness of Kosovo Raspberry Producers," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252770, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Fulghieri, Paolo & Lukin, Dmitry, 2001. "Information production, dilution costs, and optimal security design," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 3-42, July.
    19. Xianfeng Jiang & Yongdong Shi, 2006. "The Impact of Insider Trading on the Secondary Market with Order-Driven System," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(1), pages 129-143, May.
    20. Guillermo Llorente & Jiang Wang, 2020. "Trading and information in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1231-1263, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.13385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.