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Bridging the Gap: Decoding the Intrinsic Nature of Time in Market Data

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  • James B. Glattfelder
  • Anton Golub

Abstract

Intrinsic time is an example of an event-based conception of time, used to analyze financial time series. Here, for the first time, we reveal the connection between intrinsic time and physical time. In detail, we present an analytic relationship which links the two different time paradigms. Central to this discovery are the emergence of scaling laws. Indeed, a novel empirical scaling law is presented, relating to the variability of what is know as overshoots in the intrinsic time framework. To evaluate the validity of the theoretically derived expressions, three time series are analyzed; in detail, Brownian motion and two tick-by-tick empirical currency market data sets (one crypto and one fiat). Finally, the time series analyzed in physical time can be decomposed into their liquidity and volatility components, both only visible in intrinsic time, further highlighting the utility of this temporal kinship.

Suggested Citation

  • James B. Glattfelder & Anton Golub, 2022. "Bridging the Gap: Decoding the Intrinsic Nature of Time in Market Data," Papers 2204.02682, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.02682
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. Petrov & A. Golub & R. Olsen, 2020. "Agent-based modelling in directional-change intrinsic time," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 463-482, March.
    2. Benoit Mandelbrot & Howard M. Taylor, 1967. "On the Distribution of Stock Price Differences," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(6), pages 1057-1062, December.
    3. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
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    6. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
    7. Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
    8. Pospisil, Libor & Vecer, Jan & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2009. "Formulas for stopped diffusion processes with stopping times based on drawdowns and drawups," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2563-2578, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. James B. Glattfelder & Richard B. Olsen, 2024. "The Theory of Intrinsic Time: A Primer," Papers 2406.07354, arXiv.org.
    2. Edward P. K. Tsang & Shuai Ma & V. L. Raju Chinthalapati, 2024. "Nowcasting directional change in high frequency FX markets," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), March.

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