IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfnres/v45y2022i2p247-279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Chang‐Mo Kang
  • Donghyun Kim
  • Junyong Kim
  • Geul Lee

Abstract

We examine the stock return predictability of out‐of‐the‐money (OTM) put‐to‐call trading volume ratio (OTMPC). Our numerical analysis predicts that in the US equity option market, informed investors rarely write OTM options because the leverage effect is not sufficient to compensate for transaction costs. OTMPC thus captures the informed investors’ OTM put purchase volume relative to their OTM call purchase volume. After controlling for existing empirical proxies for informed option trading, we find that OTMPC predicts future stock returns and corporate news. The return predictability offers implementable stock portfolio strategies. Our findings suggest that market inefficiency can emerge from uninformed investors’ limited knowledge about how transaction costs influence the trading strategies of informed investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang‐Mo Kang & Donghyun Kim & Junyong Kim & Geul Lee, 2022. "Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 247-279, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:247-279
    DOI: 10.1111/jfir.12274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfir.12274
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jfir.12274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ge, Li & Lin, Tse-Chun & Pearson, Neil D., 2016. "Why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 601-622.
    2. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Johnson, Travis L. & So, Eric C., 2012. "The option to stock volume ratio and future returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 262-286.
    5. Patel, Vinay & Putniņš, Tālis J. & Michayluk, David & Foley, Sean, 2020. "Price discovery in stock and options markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    6. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    8. Stephan, Jens A & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 191-220, March.
    9. Luis Goncalves-Pinto & Bruce D. Grundy & Allaudeen Hameed & Thijs van der Heijden & Yichao Zhu, 2020. "Why Do Option Prices Predict Stock Returns? The Role of Price Pressure in the Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3903-3926, September.
    10. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    11. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    14. Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:487-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
    18. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    19. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    20. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    21. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    22. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    23. Dmitriy Muravyev, 2016. "Order Flow and Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 673-708, April.
    24. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1235-1258 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:1049-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Jameson, Mel & Wilhelm, William, 1992. "Market Making in the Options Markets and the Costs of Discrete Hedge Rebalancing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 765-779, June.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:711-753 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:949-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. "The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-1653, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gkionis, Konstantinos & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George & Stilger, Przemyslaw S., 2021. "Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Kelley Bergsma & Vivien Csapi & Dean Diavatopoulos & Andy Fodor, 2020. "Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 761-775, May.
    3. Kelley Bergsma & Andy Fodor & Vijay Singal & Jitendra Tayal, 2020. "Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 769-804, September.
    4. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2024. "Role of derivatives market in attenuating underreaction to left‐tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 484-517, March.
    5. Du, Brian & Fung, Scott, 2018. "Directional information effects of options trading: Evidence from the banking industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 149-168.
    6. Mohrschladt, Hannes & Schneider, Judith C., 2021. "Option-implied skewness: Insights from ITM-options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    8. Xingguo Luo & Xiaoli Yu & Shihua Qin & Qi Xu, 2020. "Option trading and the cross‐listed stock returns: Evidence from Chinese A–H shares," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1665-1690, November.
    9. Chichernea, Doina & Huang, Kershen & Petkevich, Alex & Teterin, Pavel, 2024. "Options trading imbalance, cash-flow news, and discount-rate news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Da‐Hea Kim, 2022. "Investment horizon and option market activity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 923-958, May.
    11. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    12. Lin, Zih-Ying & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2018. "The impacts of asymmetric information and short sales on the illiquidity risk premium in the stock option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 152-165.
    13. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2020. "Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    15. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    16. Amit Goyal & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No," Working Papers 2214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Wu, Zekun & Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2024. "Informed options trading before FDA drug advisory meetings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Suresh Govindaraj & Yubin Li & Chen Zhao, 2020. "The effect of option transaction costs on informed trading in the options market around earnings announcements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5-6), pages 615-644, May.
    20. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:247-279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.