IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2106.00088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust Aggregation of Correlated Information

Author

Listed:
  • Henrique de Oliveira
  • Yuhta Ishii
  • Xiao Lin

Abstract

An agent makes decisions based on multiple sources of information. In isolation, each source is well understood, but their correlation is unknown. We study the agent's robustly optimal strategies -- those that give the best possible guaranteed payoff, even under the worst possible correlation. With two states and two actions, we show that a robustly optimal strategy uses a single information source, ignoring all others. In general decision problems, robustly optimal strategies combine multiple sources of information, but the number of information sources that are needed has a bound that only depends on the decision problem. These findings provide a new rationale for why information is ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrique de Oliveira & Yuhta Ishii & Xiao Lin, 2021. "Robust Aggregation of Correlated Information," Papers 2106.00088, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.00088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.00088
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Ambiguous Correlation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 668-693.
    2. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:e12135-e12143 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gabriel Carroll, 2017. "Robustness and Separation in Multidimensional Screening," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 453-488, March.
    4. Itai Areili & Yakov Babichenko & Rann Smorodinsky, 2017. "Robust Forecast Aggregation," Papers 1710.02838, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    5. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    6. de Oliveira, Henrique, 2018. "Blackwell's informativeness theorem using diagrams," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 126-131.
    7. Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith, 2002. "The Law of Large Demand for Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2351-2366, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Julia & Liu, Jun & Tian, Weidong & Zeng, Xudong, 2022. "Portfolio concentration, portfolio inertia, and ambiguous correlation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Calford, Evan M., 2020. "Uncertainty aversion in game theory: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 720-734.
    3. Song, Yangwei, 2018. "Efficient Implementation with Interdependent Valuations and Maxmin Agents," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 92, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Tang, Rui & Zhang, Mu, 2021. "Maxmin implementation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Ilke Aydogan & Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2018. "Three layers of uncertainty: an experiment," Working Papers 623, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Song, Yangwei, 2022. "Approximate Bayesian Implementation and Exact Maxmin Implementation: An Equivalence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 362, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Aurélien Baillon & Yoram Halevy & Chen Li, 2022. "Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(3), pages 1002-1023, June.
    8. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2023. "Three Layers of Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2209-2236.
    9. Safra, Zvi & Segal, Uzi, 2022. "A lot of ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Yoram Halevy & Emre Ozdenoren, 2022. "Uncertainty and compound lotteries: calibration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 373-395, September.
    11. Makarov, Dmitry, 2021. "Optimal portfolio under ambiguous ambiguity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    12. Jerry Anunrojwong & Santiago R. Balseiro & Omar Besbes, 2024. "The Best of Many Robustness Criteria in Decision Making: Formulation and Application to Robust Pricing," Papers 2403.12260, arXiv.org.
    13. Yeon-Koo Che & Weijie Zhong, 2021. "Robustly Optimal Mechanisms for Selling Multiple Goods," Papers 2105.02828, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    14. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Vincent Théroude, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2023-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    15. Gong, Aibo & Ke, Shaowei & Qiu, Yawen & Shen, Rui, 2022. "Robust pricing under strategic trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Berger, Loïc & Bosetti, Valentina, 2020. "Characterizing ambiguity attitudes using model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 621-637.
    17. Bingyan Han & Chi Seng Pun & Hoi Ying Wong, 2021. "Robust state-dependent mean–variance portfolio selection: a closed-loop approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 529-561, July.
    18. NAKADA, Satoshi & NITZAN, Shmuel & UI, Takashi & 宇井, 貴志, 2017. "Robust Voting under Uncertainty," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-60, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. repec:hal:journl:hal-03031751 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    21. Julian Holzermann, 2023. "Optimal Investment with Stochastic Interest Rates and Ambiguity," Papers 2306.13343, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.00088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.