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Did Hurricane Katrina Reduce Mortality?

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  • Robert Kaestner

Abstract

In a recent article in the American Economic Review, Tatyana Deryugina and David Molitor (DM) analyzed the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the mortality of elderly and disabled residents of New Orleans. The authors concluded that Hurricane Katrina improved the eight-year survival rate of elderly and disabled residents of New Orleans by 3% and that most of this decline in mortality was due to declines in mortality among those who moved to places with lower mortality. In this article, I provide a critical assessment of the evidence provided by DM to support their conclusions. There are three main problems. First, DM generally fail to account for the fact that people of different ages, races or sex will have different probabilities of dying as time goes by, and when they do allow for this, results change markedly. Second, DM do not account for the fact that residents in New Orleans are likely to be selected non-randomly on the basis of health because of the relatively high mortality rate in New Orleans compared to the rest of the country. Third, there is considerable evidence that among those who moved from New Orleans, the destination chosen was non-random. Finally, DM never directly assessed changes in mortality of those who moved, or stayed, in New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina. These problems lead me to conclude that the evidence presented by DM does not support their inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kaestner, 2020. "Did Hurricane Katrina Reduce Mortality?," Papers 2011.03392, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.03392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fussell, Elizabeth & Lowe, Sarah R., 2014. "The impact of housing displacement on the mental health of low-income parents after Hurricane Katrina," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 137-144.
    2. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    3. Tatyana Deryugina & David Molitor, 2020. "Does When You Die Depend on Where You Live? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3602-3633, November.
    4. Rocío Calvo & Mariana Arcaya & Christopher Baum & Sarah Lowe & Mary Waters, 2015. "Happily Ever After? Pre-and-Post Disaster Determinants of Happiness Among Survivors of Hurricane Katrina," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 427-442, April.
    5. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    6. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
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