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Irreversible Decisions and Record-Setting News Principles

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  • Svetlana Boyarchenko

Abstract

In the now-classical real options theory, the price of an underlying asset is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion, and optimal exercise strategies are described by simple explicit formulas. This paper extends the classical theory to allow any geometric Le´vy process to model prices. Such processes may account for fat tails and skewness of probability distributions of commodity prices. The optimal exercise strategies are specified in the paper in terms of statistics of record-setting low or high prices. The formulas derived extend those observed in the Gaussian case, but the form of the result is novel even for that case.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Boyarchenko, 2004. "Irreversible Decisions and Record-Setting News Principles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 557-568, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:3:p:557-568
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828041464452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 753-777.
    6. Boyarchenko Svetlana & Levendorsky Sergey, 1998. "Models of Investment under Uncertainty when Shocks are Non-Gaussian. On the Impact of the Policy Uncertainty on Investment," EERC Working Paper Series 98-02e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    7. Seung-Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1992. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Daily Cash Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 706-715.
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