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The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time

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Listed:
  • Fabian Stephany
  • Niklas Stoehr
  • Philipp Darius
  • Leonie Neuhauser
  • Ole Teutloff
  • Fabian Braesemann

Abstract

While the coronavirus spreads, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with such policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are most in need of support. In this study, we introduce a data-mining approach to measure industry-specific risks related to COVID-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This alternative data set can complement more traditional economic indicators in times of the fast-evolving crisis as it allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings suggest that the companies' awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments. Our approach allows to distinguish the industries by their risk awareness towards COVID-19. Based on natural language processing, we identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. The preliminary findings are summarised as an up-to-date online index. The CoRisk-Index tracks the industry-specific risk assessments related to the crisis, as it spreads through the economy. The tracking tool is updated weekly. It could provide relevant empirical data to inform models on the economic effects of the crisis. Such complementary empirical information could ultimately help policymakers to effectively target financial support in order to mitigate the economic shocks of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Stephany & Niklas Stoehr & Philipp Darius & Leonie Neuhauser & Ole Teutloff & Fabian Braesemann, 2020. "The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time," Papers 2003.12432, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.12432
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences

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    Cited by:

    1. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Ghouri, Arsalan Mujahid & Akhtar, Pervaiz & Haq, Mirza A. & Mani, Venkatesh & Arsenyan, Gayane & Meyer, Martin, 2021. "Real-time information sharing, customer orientation, and the exploration of intra-service industry differences: Malaysia as an emerging market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response," GLO Discussion Paper Series 524, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Florian Horky & Nicola Tretter & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2021. "Are the pandemic and innovation twins? Perceived financial obstacles, innovations, and entrepreneurial success," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 236-254, December.
    5. Cheng-Hong Yang & Borcy Lee & Yu-Da Lin, 2022. "Effect of Money Supply, Population, and Rent on Real Estate: A Clustering Analysis in Taiwan," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Louis‐Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Derek Mikola & Taylor Wright, 2022. "The short‐term economic consequences of COVID‐19: Occupation tasks and mental health in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 214-247, February.
    7. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Furceri, Davide & Ganslmeier, Michael & Yang, Naihan, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 15892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hansen, Stephen & Davis, Steven & Seminario-Amez, Cristhian, 2020. "Firm-level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor, 2021. "On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Giorgia Menta, 2021. "Poverty in the COVID-19 Era: Real-time Data Analysis on Five European Countries," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Research on Economic Inequality: Poverty, Inequality and Shocks, volume 29, pages 209-247, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Braesemann, Fabian & Stephany, Fabian, 2020. "Measuring Digital Development with Online Data: Digital Economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," SocArXiv f9jqh, Center for Open Science.
    12. Fabian Stephany & Michael Dunn & Steven Sawyer & Vili Lehdonvirta, 2020. "Distancing Bonus Or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of Us Online Workers in Times of COVID‐19," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(3), pages 561-573, July.
    13. Khansa Zaman & Sajid Bashir & Zahra Afaq & Naimah Khan, 2022. "Covid-19 Risk Perception of Travel Destination Development and Validation of a Scale," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, February.
    14. Fabian Stephany, 2020. "When Does it Pay Off to Learn a New Skill? Revealing the Complementary Benefit of Cross-Skilling," Papers 2010.11841, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    15. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 2021. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective [Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Silvius STANCIU & Riana Iren RADU & Violeta SAPIRA & Bogdan Dumitrache BRATOVEANU & Andrei Mirel FLOREA, 2020. "Consumer Behavior in Crisis Situations. Research on the Effects of COVID-19 in Romania," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 5-13.
    17. Stephany, Fabian, 2021. "When Does it Pay Off to Learn a New Skill? Revealing the Complementary Benefit of Cross-Skilling," SocArXiv sv9de, Center for Open Science.

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