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The Impact of Execution Delay on Kelly-Based Stock Trading: High-Frequency Versus Buy and Hold

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  • Chung-Han Hsieh
  • B. Ross Barmish
  • John A. Gubner

Abstract

Stock trading based on Kelly's celebrated Expected Logarithmic Growth (ELG) criterion, a well-known prescription for optimal resource allocation, has received considerable attention in the literature. Using ELG as the performance metric, we compare the impact of trade execution delay on the relative performance of high-frequency trading versus buy and hold. While it is intuitively obvious and straightforward to prove that in the presence of sufficiently high transaction costs, buy and hold is the better strategy, is it possible that with no transaction costs, buy and hold can still be the better strategy? When there is no delay in trade execution, we prove a theorem saying that the answer is ``no.'' However, when there is delay in trade execution, we present simulation results using a binary lattice stock model to show that the answer can be ``yes.'' This is seen to be true whether self-financing is imposed or not.

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  • Chung-Han Hsieh & B. Ross Barmish & John A. Gubner, 2019. "The Impact of Execution Delay on Kelly-Based Stock Trading: High-Frequency Versus Buy and Hold," Papers 1907.08771, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1907.08771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonard Maclean & Edward Thorp & William Ziemba, 2010. "Long-term capital growth: the good and bad properties of the Kelly and fractional Kelly capital growth criteria," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 681-687.
    2. Daniel Kuhn & David Luenberger, 2010. "Analysis of the rebalancing frequency in log-optimal portfolio selection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 221-234.
    3. Mark Davis & Sébastien Lleo, 2011. "Fractional Kelly Strategies for Benchmarked Asset Management," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 27, pages 385-407, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Sujit R. Das & Dmitri Kaznachey & Mukul Goyal, 2014. "Computing optimal rebalance frequency for log-optimal portfolios," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1489-1502, January.
    5. Chung-Han Hsieh & B. Ross Barmish & John A. Gubner, 2018. "At What Frequency Should the Kelly Bettor Bet?," Papers 1801.06737, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    6. Chung-Han Hsieh & John A. Gubner & B. Ross Barmish, 2018. "Rebalancing Frequency Considerations for Kelly-Optimal Stock Portfolios in a Control-Theoretic Framework," Papers 1807.05265, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    7. Hakansson, Nils H, 1971. "On Optimal Myopic Portfolio Policies, With and Without Serial Correlation of Yields," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 324-334, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Han Hsieh, 2020. "Generalization of Affine Feedback Stock Trading Results to Include Stop-Loss Orders," Papers 2004.12848, arXiv.org.

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