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Modelling Possibility of Short-Term Forecasting of Market Parameters for Portfolio Selection

Author

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  • Nikolai Dokuchaev

    (Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Curtin University)

Abstract

We discuss modelling possibility of short-term forecasting for market pa- rameters in the portfolio selection problems. We suggest a continuous time financial market model and a discrete time market model featuring this pos- sibility. For these models, optimal portfolio selection problem has an optimal quasi-myopic solution. Computationally, the problem is reduced to a stochas- tic optimal control problem with delay in the plant equation. This allowed to quantify the degree of non-myopicness for a given utility function.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2015. "Modelling Possibility of Short-Term Forecasting of Market Parameters for Portfolio Selection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(1), pages 143-161, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:dokuchaev
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Dokuchaev & U. Haussmann, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection and compression in an incomplete market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 336-345, March.
    2. Dokuchaev, Nikolai, 2007. "Discrete time market with serial correlations and optimal myopic strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 1090-1104, March.
    3. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    4. Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2008. "Optimal solution of investment problems via linear parabolic equations generated by Kalman filter," Papers 0804.4522, arXiv.org.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1705-1770 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27.
    7. Giuliano Lorenzoni & Adrian Pizzinga & Rodrigo Atherino & Cristiano Fernandes & Rosane Riera Freire, 2007. "On the Statistical Validation of Technical Analysis," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 5(1), pages 3-28.
    8. Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2010. "On detecting the dependence of time series," Papers 1010.2576, arXiv.org.
    9. Dokuchaev, Nikolai, 2010. "Optimality of myopic strategies for multi-stock discrete time market with management costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 551-556, January.
    10. M. J. Brennan, 1998. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(3), pages 295-306.
    11. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Hakansson, Nils H, 1971. "On Optimal Myopic Portfolio Policies, With and Without Serial Correlation of Yields," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 324-334, July.
    13. Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2012. "On statistical indistinguishability of the complete and incomplete markets," Papers 1209.4695, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    14. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2005. "Reexamining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with Data Snooping Checks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 606-628.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuenn-Jyi Sheu & Li-Hsien Sun & Zheng Zhang, 2018. "Portfolio Optimization with Delay Factor Models," Papers 1805.01118, arXiv.org.
    2. Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2017. "A pathwise inference method for the parameters of diffusion terms," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 731-743, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market models; Portfolio selection; Forecasting; Myopic strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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