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The Impact of Renewable Energy Forecasts on Intraday Electricity Prices

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  • Sergei Kulakov
  • Florian Ziel

Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of errors in wind and solar power forecasts on intraday electricity prices. We develop a novel econometric model which is based on day-ahead wholesale auction curves data and errors in wind and solar power forecasts. The model shifts day-ahead supply curves to calculate intraday prices. We apply our model to the German EPEX SPOT SE data. Our model outperforms both linear and non-linear benchmarks. Our study allows us to conclude that errors in renewable energy forecasts exert a non-linear impact on intraday prices. We demonstrate that additional wind and solar power capacities induce non-linear changes in the intraday price volatility. Finally, we comment on economical and policy implications of our findings.

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  • Sergei Kulakov & Florian Ziel, 2019. "The Impact of Renewable Energy Forecasts on Intraday Electricity Prices," Papers 1903.09641, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1903.09641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2016. "Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 435-454.
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    Cited by:

    1. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Kolb, Sebastian & Dillig, Marius & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Karl, Jürgen, 2020. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany - An update for the years 2014–2018," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Thomas Kuppelwieser & David Wozabal, 2023. "Intraday power trading: toward an arms race in weather forecasting?," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 57-83, March.
    4. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Cramer, Eike & Witthaut, Dirk & Mitsos, Alexander & Dahmen, Manuel, 2023. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices using normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    6. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution," Papers 2211.13002, arXiv.org.
    7. Marcel Kremer & Rüdiger Kiesel & Florentina Paraschiv, 2020. "Intraday Electricity Pricing of Night Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Sergei Kulakov, 2020. "X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Sergei Kulakov, 2019. "X-model: further development and possible modifications," Papers 1907.09206, arXiv.org.

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