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Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm

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  • Alexander James
  • Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa
  • Xiao Qiao

Abstract

We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because the full information about it is not available until later, is key for recessions, which are only determined months after the fact. We show that SVM has excellent predictive performance for this task, and we provide implementation details to facilitate its use in similar problems in economics and finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander James & Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa & Xiao Qiao, 2019. "Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm," Papers 1903.03202, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1903.03202
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1903.03202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
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    3. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
    4. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    7. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    9. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-996, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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