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On the First Hitting Time Density of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

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  • Alexander Lipton
  • Vadim Kaushansky

Abstract

In this paper, we study the classical problem of the first passage hitting density of an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. We give two complementary (forward and backward) formulations of this problem and provide semi-analytical solutions for both. The corresponding problems are comparable in complexity. By using the method of heat potentials, we show how to reduce these problems to linear Volterra integral equations of the second kind. For small values of $t$, we solve these equations analytically by using Abel equation approximation; for larger $t$ we solve them numerically. We also provide a comparison with other known methods for finding the hitting density of interest, and argue that our method has considerable advantages and provides additional valuable insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Lipton & Vadim Kaushansky, 2018. "On the First Hitting Time Density of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process," Papers 1810.02390, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1810.02390
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1810.02390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    2. Olivier Scaillet & Boris Leblanc, 1998. "Path dependent options on yields in the affine term structure model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 349-367.
    3. Delia Coculescu & Hélyette Geman & Monique Jeanblanc, 2008. "Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 195-218, April.
    4. Alexander Lipton & Vadim Kaushansky & Christoph Reisinger, 2018. "Semi-analytical solution of a McKean-Vlasov equation with feedback through hitting a boundary," Papers 1808.05311, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    5. Chuang Yi, 2010. "On the first passage time distribution of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 957-960.
    6. Alexander Lipton, 2001. "Mathematical Methods for Foreign Exchange:A Financial Engineer's Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 4694, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Lipton, 2020. "Old Problems, Classical Methods, New Solutions," Papers 2003.06903, arXiv.org.
    2. Kyriakos Georgiou & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probability of Default modelling with L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and applications in credit risk under the IFRS 9," Papers 2309.12384, arXiv.org.
    3. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-analytic pricing of double barrier options with time-dependent barriers and rebates at hit," Papers 2009.09342, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Alexander Lipton & Marcos Lopez de Prado, 2020. "A closed-form solution for optimal mean-reverting trading strategies," Papers 2003.10502, arXiv.org.
    5. Andrey Itkin & Dmitry Muravey, 2020. "Semi-closed form prices of barrier options in the Hull-White model," Papers 2004.09591, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.

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