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Shapley Value Methods for Attribution Modeling in Online Advertising

Author

Listed:
  • Kaifeng Zhao
  • Seyed Hanif Mahboobi
  • Saeed R. Bagheri

Abstract

This paper re-examines the Shapley value methods for attribution analysis in the area of online advertising. As a credit allocation solution in cooperative game theory, Shapley value method directly quantifies the contribution of online advertising inputs to the advertising key performance indicator (KPI) across multiple channels. We simplify its calculation by developing an alternative mathematical formulation. The new formula significantly improves the computational efficiency and therefore extends the scope of applicability. Based on the simplified formula, we further develop the ordered Shapley value method. The proposed method is able to take into account the order of channels visited by users. We claim that it provides a more comprehensive insight by evaluating the attribution of channels at different stages of user conversion journeys. The proposed approaches are illustrated using a real-world online advertising campaign dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaifeng Zhao & Seyed Hanif Mahboobi & Saeed R. Bagheri, 2018. "Shapley Value Methods for Attribution Modeling in Online Advertising," Papers 1804.05327, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1804.05327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ron Berman, 2018. "Beyond the Last Touch: Attribution in Online Advertising," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 771-792, September.
    2. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, April.
    3. Sparkman, Richard M, Jr & Locander, William B, 1980. "Attribution Theory and Advertising Effectiveness," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 7(3), pages 219-224, December.
    4. Song, Bomi & Seol, Hyeonju & Park, Yongtae, 2016. "A patent portfolio-based approach for assessing potential R&D partners: An application of the Shapley value," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 156-165.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisenda Molina & Juan Tejada & Tom Weiss, 2020. "Some game theoretic marketing attribution models," Papers 2012.00812, arXiv.org.
    2. Elisenda Molina & Juan Tejada & Tom Weiss, 2022. "Some game theoretic marketing attribution models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 318(2), pages 1043-1075, November.

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