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Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories

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  • Ron W. Nielsen

Abstract

Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures. Examples of the growth of population and of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product are used to illustrate the application of this method of forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1705.06557
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.06557
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth with a Search for Takeoffs from Stagnation to Growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    5. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    6. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions," Papers 1603.01685, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    7. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    10. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 242-255, December.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Explaining the Origin of the Anthropocene and Predicting Its Future," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 354-386, December.

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