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Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Australia.)

Abstract

Industrial Revolution did not boost economic growth and the growth of population even in the United Kingdom, the centre of this revolution. On the contrary, from around 1850, economic growth and the growth of population started to be diverted to slower trajectories. The new trend describing the growth of income per capita (Gross Domestic Product per capita, i.e. GDP/cap) is now analysed using Maddison’s data. Two numerical solutions and two analytical solutions of the differential equation describing the growth rate of income per capita are presented. It is demonstrated yet again that even strong fluctuations in the growth rate do not change the shape of growth trajectories. Thus, contrary to the common misconception, even strong fluctuations in the growth rate cannot be used as the evidence of the existence of Malthusian stagnation because they do not change the mechanism of growth. Such strong fluctuations can at best produce only small and negligible ripples in growth trajectories. Our analysis shows also that the current growth of income per capita in the UK follows an unsustainable trajectory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Income Per Capita in the United Kingdom," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 551-561, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:3:y:2016:i:4:p:551-561
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    2. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    3. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2007. "Multiple growth regimes - Insights from unified growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 470-475, September.
    6. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    7. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions," Papers 1603.01685, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    8. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    9. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Scientifically Unacceptable Established Knowledge in Demography and in Economic Research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 429-457, September.
    10. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    11. Conrad Taeuber & Irene B. Taeuber, 1949. "World Population Trends," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(1_Part_2), pages 237-250.
    12. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, March.
    13. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 196-219, June.
    14. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Papers 1510.06337, arXiv.org.
    15. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita explained," Papers 1603.00736, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    16. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth: Oded Galor on the Transition from Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Economic Growth," Working Papers 2008-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    17. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of Historical Income Per Capita Distributions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 300-319, June.
    19. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 242-255, December.
    20. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Puzzling Properties of the Historical Growth Rate of Income Per Capita Explained," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 241-256, June.
    21. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 222-238, December.
    22. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.
    2. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Application of differential equations in projecting growth trajectories," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 203-221, September.
    3. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Puzzling Features of the Historical Income per Capita Distributions Explained," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 10-24, March.
    4. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research," Papers 1708.08673, arXiv.org.
    5. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    6. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2017. "Changing the direction of the economic and demographic research," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 288-309, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United Kingdom; Income per capita; Growth rate; Future growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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