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Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University, Environmental Futures Research Institute, Australia.)

Abstract

Data describing historical growth of human population, global and regional (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America), are analysed. Results are in harmony with the earlier analysis of the historical growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and with other independent studies. This analysis is also in harmony with the study of the historical economic growth. Within the range of analysable data, there was no Malthusian stagnation. Takeoffs from stagnation to growth, postulated by the Unified Growth Theory never happened. There were no escapes from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap in the growth of population. This analysis and the earlier studies of the Gross Domestic Product lead to the conclusion that there were also no takeoffs in the income per capita distributions, claimed by the Unified Growth Theory. Consequently, the claimed differential timing in takeoffs never happened. Unified Growth Theory is contradicted yet again by the mathematical analysis of the same data, which were used, but never analysed, during the formulation of this theory. The study presented here, as well as earlier publications on the related topics, shows also that certain fundamental postulates used in the economic and demographic research are repeatedly contradicted by the mathematical analysis of data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 242-263, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:242-263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    2. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    3. Oded Galor, 2010. "The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture-Comparative Economic Development: Insights From Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 1-44, February.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Demographic Transition Theory and Its Link to the Historical Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 32-49, March.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2007. "Multiple growth regimes - Insights from unified growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 470-475, September.
    6. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    7. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    8. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Papers 1602.05718, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    9. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Papers 1601.04686, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    10. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Absence of Takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 16-27, March.
    11. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, March.
    12. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(2), pages 97-151, April.
    14. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 242-255, December.
    15. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved," Papers 1603.08344, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the Past Two Million Years Vol. I," Papers 1710.01768, arXiv.org.
    3. Ron W. Nielsen, 2017. "Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories," Papers 1705.06557, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    4. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth with a Search for Takeoffs from Stagnation to Growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth; Economic growth; Unified Growth Theory; Regimes of growth; Malthusian trap; Gross Domestic Product; Income per capita; Hyperbolic growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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