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Value-at-Risk Prediction in R with the GAS Package

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  • David Ardia
  • Kris Boudt
  • Leopoldo Catania

Abstract

GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel GAS package for R. Details and code snippets for prediction, comparison and backtesting with GAS models are presented. An empirical application considering Dow Jones Index constituents investigates the VaR forecasting performance of GAS models.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ardia & Kris Boudt & Leopoldo Catania, 2016. "Value-at-Risk Prediction in R with the GAS Package," Papers 1611.06010, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.06010
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    Cited by:

    1. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Papathanasiou, Spyros & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "Estimation of value at risk for copper," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    2. Laporta, Alessandro G. & Merlo, Luca & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Selection of Value at Risk Models for Energy Commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 628-643.
    3. Dodo Natatou Moutari & Hassane Abba Mallam & Diakarya Barro & Bisso Saley, 2021. "Dependence Modeling and Risk Assessment of a Financial Portfolio with ARMA-APARCH-EVT models based on HACs," Papers 2105.09473, arXiv.org.
    4. Geenens, Gery & Dunn, Richard, 2022. "A nonparametric copula approach to conditional Value-at-Risk," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 19-37.

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