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Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns

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Listed:
  • Raphael Benichou
  • Yves Lemp'eri`ere
  • Emmanuel S'eri'e
  • Julien Kockelkoren
  • Philip Seager
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Marc Potters

Abstract

Markowitz' celebrated optimal portfolio theory generally fails to deliver out-of-sample diversification. In this note, we propose a new portfolio construction strategy based on symmetry arguments only, leading to "Eigenrisk Parity" portfolios that achieve equal realized risk on all the principal components of the covariance matrix. This holds true for any other definition of uncorrelated factors. We then specialize our general formula to the most agnostic case where the indicators of future returns are assumed to be uncorrelated and of equal variance. This "Agnostic Risk Parity" (AGP) portfolio minimizes unknown-unknown risks generated by over-optimistic hedging of the different bets. AGP is shown to fare quite well when applied to standard technical strategies such as trend following.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Benichou & Yves Lemp'eri`ere & Emmanuel S'eri'e & Julien Kockelkoren & Philip Seager & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 2016. "Agnostic Risk Parity: Taming Known and Unknown-Unknowns," Papers 1610.08818, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1610.08818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roncalli, Thierry, 2013. "Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting," MPRA Paper 47679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters & Jean-Pierre Aguilar, 1997. "Missing Information and Asset Allocation," Papers cond-mat/9707042, arXiv.org.
    3. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Frahm, Gabriel & Wiechers, Christof, 2011. "On the diversification of portfolios of risky assets," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 2/11, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    6. M. Hossein Partovi & Michael Caputo, 2004. "Principal Portfolios: Recasting the Efficient Frontier," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-10.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Butler & Roy H. Kwon, 2021. "Data-driven integration of norm-penalized mean-variance portfolios," Papers 2112.07016, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

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