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Evolutionary Model of Stock Markets

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  • Joachim Kaldasch

Abstract

The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

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  • Joachim Kaldasch, 2015. "Evolutionary Model of Stock Markets," Papers 1607.01248, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01248
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17.
    2. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durables," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12.
    3. Joachim Kaldasch, 2015. "Dynamic Model of the Price Dispersion of Homogeneous Goods," Papers 1509.01216, arXiv.org.
    4. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Successive Product Generations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15.

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