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Generalized semi-Markovian dividend discount model: risk and return

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  • Guglielmo D'Amico

Abstract

The article presents a general discrete time dividend valuation model when the dividend growth rate is a general continuous variable. The main assumption is that the dividend growth rate follows a discrete time semi-Markov chain with measurable space. The paper furnishes sufficient conditions that assure finiteness of fundamental prices and risks and new equations that describe the first and second order price-dividend ratios. Approximation methods to solve equations are provided and some new results for semi-Markov reward processes with Borel state space are established. The paper generalizes previous contributions dealing with pricing firms on the basis of fundamentals.

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  • Guglielmo D'Amico, 2016. "Generalized semi-Markovian dividend discount model: risk and return," Papers 1605.02472, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.02472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arianna Agosto & Enrico Moretto, 2015. "Variance matters (in stochastic dividend discount models)," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 283-295, May.
    2. Guglielmo D'Amico & Filippo Petroni, 2012. "Weighted-indexed semi-Markov models for modeling financial returns," Papers 1205.2551, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guglielmo D'Amico & Filippo Petroni, 2011. "A semi-Markov model with memory for price changes," Papers 1109.4259, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2011.
    5. Brooks, Robert & Helms, Billy, 1990. "An N-Stage, Fractional Period, Quarterly Dividend Discount Model," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 651-657, November.
    6. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
    7. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-383.
    8. Nikolaos Limnios, 2012. "Reliability Measures of Semi-Markov Systems with General State Space," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 895-917, December.
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