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On minimising a portfolio's shortfall probability

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  • Anatolii A. Puhalskii
  • Michael Jay Stutzer

Abstract

We obtain a lower asymptotic bound on the decay rate of the probability of a portfolio's underperformance against a benchmark over a large time horizon. It is assumed that the prices of the securities are governed by geometric Brownian motions with the coefficients depending on an economic factor, possibly nonlinearly. The economic factor is modelled with a general Ito equation. The bound is shown to be tight. More specifically, epsilon-optimal portfolios are obtained under additional conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anatolii A. Puhalskii & Michael Jay Stutzer, 2016. "On minimising a portfolio's shortfall probability," Papers 1602.02192, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.02192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Stutzer, 2011. "Portfolio choice with endogenous utility: a large deviations approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 43, pages 619-640, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Veretennikov, A. Yu., 1997. "On polynomial mixing bounds for stochastic differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 115-127, October.
    3. Hiroaki Hata & Hideo Nagai & Shuenn-Jyi Sheu, 2010. "Asymptotics of the probability minimizing a "down-side" risk," Papers 1001.2131, arXiv.org.
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