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Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia

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  • Demian Pouzo
  • Ignacio Presno

Abstract

This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sovereign default, we match the bond spreads dynamics observed in the data together with other business cycle features for Argentina, while preserving the default frequency at historical low levels.

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  • Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," Papers 1512.06960, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1512.06960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Axelle Ferriere & Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 89-131, January.

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