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Cointegrating Jumps: an Application to Energy Facilities

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  • Nicola Cufaro Petroni
  • Piergiacomo Sabino

Abstract

Based on the concept of self-decomposable random variables we discuss the application of a model for a pair of dependent Poisson processes to energy facilities. Due to the resulting structure of the jump events we can see the self-decomposability as a form of cointegration among jumps. In the context of energy facilities, the application of our approach to model power or gas dynamics and to evaluate transportation assets seen as spread options is straightforward. We study the applicability of our methodology first assuming a Merton market model with two underlying assets; in a second step we consider price dynamics driven by an exponential mean-reverting Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck plus compound Poisson that are commonly used in the energy field. In this specific case we propose a price spot dynamics for each underlying that has the advantage of being treatable to find non-arbitrage conditions. In particular we can find close-form formulas for vanilla options so that the price and the Greeks of spread options can be calculated in close form using the Margrabe formula (if the strike is zero) or some other well known approximation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Cufaro Petroni & Piergiacomo Sabino, 2015. "Cointegrating Jumps: an Application to Energy Facilities," Papers 1509.01144, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1509.01144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    2. Li, Minqiang, 2008. "Closed-Form Approximations for Spread Option Prices and Greeks," MPRA Paper 6994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    4. Minqiang Li & Jieyun Zhou & Shi-Jie Deng, 2010. "Multi-asset spread option pricing and hedging," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 305-324.
    5. Pellegrino, Tommaso & Sabino, Piergiacomo, 2014. "On the use of the moment-matching technique for pricing and hedging multi-asset spread options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 172-185.
    6. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
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