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Pricing and Risk Management with High-Dimensional Quasi Monte Carlo and Global Sensitivity Analysis

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  • Marco Bianchetti
  • Sergei Kucherenko
  • Stefano Scoleri

Abstract

We review and apply Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques to pricing and risk management (greeks) of representative financial instruments of increasing complexity. We compare QMC vs standard Monte Carlo (MC) results in great detail, using high-dimensional Sobol' low discrepancy sequences, different discretization methods, and specific analyses of convergence, performance, speed up, stability, and error optimization for finite differences greeks. We find that our QMC outperforms MC in most cases, including the highest-dimensional simulations and greeks calculations, showing faster and more stable convergence to exact or almost exact results. Using GSA, we are able to fully explain our findings in terms of reduced effective dimension of our QMC simulation, allowed in most cases, but not always, by Brownian bridge discretization. We conclude that, beyond pricing, QMC is a very promising technique also for computing risk figures, greeks in particular, as it allows to reduce the computational effort of high-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations typical of modern risk management.

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  • Marco Bianchetti & Sergei Kucherenko & Stefano Scoleri, 2015. "Pricing and Risk Management with High-Dimensional Quasi Monte Carlo and Global Sensitivity Analysis," Papers 1504.02896, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1504.02896
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Ruixue & Owen, Art B., 2006. "Estimating Mean Dimensionality of Analysis of Variance Decompositions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 712-721, June.
    2. Kucherenko, Sergei & Feil, Balazs & Shah, Nilay & Mauntz, Wolfgang, 2011. "The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 440-449.
    3. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
    4. Peter L. Bossaerts & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2001. "Finance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Lectures On Corporate Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-5, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Xiaoqun Wang, 2009. "Dimension Reduction Techniques in Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods for Option Pricing," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 488-504, August.
    6. Spassimir H. Paskov & Joseph F. Traub, 1995. "Faster Valuation of Financial Derivatives," Working Papers 95-03-034, Santa Fe Institute.
    7. Sobol Ilya M. & Shukhman Boris V., 2014. "Quasi-Monte Carlo: A high-dimensional experiment," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 167-171, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Hok & Sergei Kucherenko, 2021. "Pricing and Risk Analysis in Hyperbolic Local Volatility Model with Quasi Monte Carlo," Papers 2106.08421, arXiv.org.
    2. Jan Pospíšil & Tomáš Sobotka & Philipp Ziegler, 2019. "Robustness and sensitivity analyses for stochastic volatility models under uncertain data structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1935-1958, December.
    3. Huang, Zhenzhen & Kwok, Yue Kuen & Xu, Ziqing, 2024. "Efficient algorithms for calculating risk measures and risk contributions in copula credit risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 132-150.
    4. J. Hok & S. Kucherenko, 2022. "The importance of being scrambled: supercharged Quasi Monte Carlo," Papers 2210.16548, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    5. Andrea Maran & Andrea Pallavicini & Stefano Scoleri, 2021. "Chebyshev Greeks: Smoothing Gamma without Bias," Papers 2106.12431, arXiv.org.
    6. Jan Posp'iv{s}il & Tom'av{s} Sobotka & Philipp Ziegler, 2019. "Robustness and sensitivity analyses for stochastic volatility models under uncertain data structure," Papers 1912.06709, arXiv.org.
    7. Paul Bilokon & Sergei Kucherenko & Casey Williams, 2022. "Quasi-Monte Carlo methods for calculating derivatives sensitivities on the GPU," Papers 2209.11337, arXiv.org.
    8. Zhijian He & Xiaoqun Wang, 2021. "An Integrated Quasi-Monte Carlo Method for Handling High Dimensional Problems with Discontinuities in Financial Engineering," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 693-718, February.

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