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A two-stage model for dealing with temporal degradation of credit scoring

Author

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  • Maria Rocha Sousa
  • Jo~ao Gama
  • Manuel J. Silva Gonc{c}alves

Abstract

This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Future extensions should cover predictions in larger time frames and consider lagged periods. This methodology can be further improved if more information about the economic cycles is integrated in the forecasting of default.

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  • Maria Rocha Sousa & Jo~ao Gama & Manuel J. Silva Gonc{c}alves, 2014. "A two-stage model for dealing with temporal degradation of credit scoring," Papers 1406.7775, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1406.7775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malik, Madhur & Thomas, Lyn C., 2012. "Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 261-272.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Begicheva & Alexey Zaytsev, 2021. "Bank transactions embeddings help to uncover current macroeconomics," Papers 2110.12000, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.

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