IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1403.8125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum

Author

Listed:
  • Jaehyung Choi

Abstract

We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from these alternative selection criteria are superior not only in forecasting directions of asset prices but also in capturing cross-sectional return differentials. In monthly periods, the alternative portfolios ranked by maximum drawdown measures exhibit outperformance over other alternative momentum portfolios including traditional cumulative return-based momentum portfolios. In weekly time scales, recovery-related stock selection rules are the best ranking criteria for detecting mean-reversion. For the alternative portfolios and their ranking baskets, improved risk profiles in various reward-risk measures also imply more consistent prediction on the direction of assets in future. In the Carhart four-factor analysis, higher factor-neutral intercepts for the alternative strategies are another evidence for the robust prediction by the alternative stock selection rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaehyung Choi, 2014. "Maximum drawdown, recovery, and momentum," Papers 1403.8125, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.8125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1403.8125
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soon-Ho & Kim, Dongcheol & Shin, Hyun-Soo, 2012. "Evaluating asset pricing models in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 198-227.
    2. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    3. Shin Kim, Young & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Leonardo Bianchi, Michele & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010. "Tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible GARCH models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2096-2109, September.
    4. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    7. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    8. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, August.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    11. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    12. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    13. Shing-yang Hu, 1997. "Trading Turnover and Expected Stock Returns: The Trading Frequency Hypothesis and Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Finance 9702001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    18. Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu & Ma, Tongshu, 2011. "The 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 180-204, February.
    19. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    20. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 425-447, June.
    21. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
    22. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    23. Rachev, Svetlozar & Jasic, Teo & Stoyanov, Stoyan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2007. "Momentum strategies based on reward-risk stock selection criteria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. Jonathan Lewellen, 2002. "Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 533-564, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaehyung Choi & Hyangju Kim & Young Shin Kim, 2021. "Diversified reward-risk parity in portfolio construction," Papers 2106.09055, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Khizar Qureshi & Tauhid Zaman, 2024. "Pairs Trading Using a Novel Graphical Matching Approach," Papers 2403.07998, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaehyung Choi & Young Shin Kim & Ivan Mitov, 2014. "Reward-risk momentum strategies using classical tempered stable distribution," Papers 1403.6093, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    2. Choi, Jaehyung, 2014. "Physical approach to price momentum and its application to momentum strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 61-72.
    3. Choi, Jaehyung & Kim, Young Shin & Mitov, Ivan, 2015. "Reward-risk momentum strategies using classical tempered stable distribution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 194-213.
    4. Jaehyung Choi & Sungsoo Choi & Wonseok Kang, 2012. "Momentum universe shrinkage effect in price momentum," Papers 1211.6517, arXiv.org.
    5. Jaehyung Choi, 2012. "Physical approach to price momentum and its application to momentum strategy," Papers 1208.2775, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2014.
    6. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    7. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, February.
    8. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Achim BACKHAUS & Aliya ZHAKANOVA ISIKSAL, 2016. "The Impact of Momentum Factors on Multi Asset Portfolio," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 146-169, December.
    10. Mengoli, Stefano, 2004. "On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 301-331.
    11. Theissen, Erik & Yilanci, Can, 2020. "Momentum? What Momentum?," CFR Working Papers 20-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    13. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    14. Hong-Yi Chen & Sheng-Syan Chen & Chin-Wen Hsin & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Does Revenue Momentum Drive or Ride Earnings or Price Momentum?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 94, pages 3263-3318, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Ding Du & Karen Craft Denning & Xiaobing Zhao, 2014. "Market states and momentum in sector exchange-traded funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(4), pages 223-237, August.
    16. Wahal, Sunil & Yavuz, M. Deniz, 2013. "Style investing, comovement and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 136-154.
    17. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    18. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Wang, Hsiao-Chuan, 2018. "Momentum lost and found in corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 60-82.
    19. Ivelina Pavlova & A. M. Parhizgari, 2011. "In search of momentum profits: are they illusory?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1617-1639.
    20. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1403.8125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.