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Second Order Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Asymptotics: Stochastic Terminal Layer Analysis & Calibration

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  • Jean-Pierre Fouque
  • Matthew Lorig
  • Ronnie Sircar

Abstract

Multiscale stochastic volatility models have been developed as an efficient way to capture the principle effects on derivative pricing and portfolio optimization of randomly varying volatility. The recent book Fouque, Papanicolaou, Sircar and S{\o}lna (2011, CUP) analyzes models in which the volatility of the underlying is driven by two diffusions -- one fast mean-reverting and one slow-varying, and provides a first order approximation for European option prices and for the implied volatility surface, which is calibrated to market data. Here, we present the full second order asymptotics, which are considerably more complicated due to a terminal layer near the option expiration time. We find that, to second order, the implied volatility approximation depends quadratically on log-moneyness, capturing the convexity of the implied volatility curve seen in data. We introduce a new probabilistic approach to the terminal layer analysis needed for the derivation of the second order singular perturbation term, and calibrate to S&P 500 options data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Fouque & Matthew Lorig & Ronnie Sircar, 2012. "Second Order Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Asymptotics: Stochastic Terminal Layer Analysis & Calibration," Papers 1208.5802, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1208.5802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fouque,Jean-Pierre & Papanicolaou,George & Sircar,Ronnie & Sølna,Knut, 2011. "Multiscale Stochastic Volatility for Equity, Interest Rate, and Credit Derivatives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843584, October.
    2. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
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    5. Masaaki Fukasawa, 2011. "Asymptotic analysis for stochastic volatility: martingale expansion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 635-654, December.
    6. Alan L. Lewis, 2000. "Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility," Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility, Finance Press, number ovsv, December.
    7. K. Ronnie Sircar & George Papanicolaou, 1999. "Stochastic volatility, smile & asymptotics," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-145.
    8. Blake LeBaron, 2001. "Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Hillebrand, Eric, 2005. "Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 121-138.
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