IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1103.5661.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The tail risks of FX return distributions: a comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders

Author

Listed:
  • john cotter
  • kevin dowd

Abstract

This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather than the more common analysis of indicative quotes. In general, limit and market orders exhibit broadly similar tail behaviour, but limit orders have significantly heavier tails and larger tail quantiles than market orders.

Suggested Citation

  • john cotter & kevin dowd, 2011. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: a comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," Papers 1103.5661, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5661
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.5661
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    3. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
    4. John Cotter, 2005. "Tail behaviour of the euro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 827-840.
    5. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    6. Handa, Puneet & Schwartz, Robert A, 1996. "Limit Order Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1835-1861, December.
    7. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
    8. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    9. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    10. Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
    11. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2000. "Diagnosing and treating the fat tails in financial returns data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 389-416, November.
    12. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1992. "Tail Estimates of East European Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 83-96, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2010. "Intra-day seasonality in foreign exchange market transactions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 287-294, April.
    2. Ana-Maria Gavril, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk: Heads or Tails," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 35, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    3. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin Dowd & John Cotter, 2011. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Market Transactions," Working Papers 200746, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    2. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2010. "Intra-day seasonality in foreign exchange market transactions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 287-294, April.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    5. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    6. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Frederiksen, Per, 2008. "Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-286, March.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    8. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    9. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019, January-A.
    10. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
    11. Alexis Derviz, 2007. "Modeling Electronic FX Brokerage as a Fast Order-Driven Marketunder Heterogeneous Private Values and Information," Working Papers IES 2007/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2007.
    12. Konstantin Tyurin, 2004. "High-Frequency Principal Components and Evolution of Liquidity in a Limit Order Market," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 579, Econometric Society.
    13. Lo, Ingrid & Sapp, Stephen G., 2010. "Order aggressiveness and quantity: How are they determined in a limit order market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-237, July.
    14. Kaul, Aditya & Sapp, Stephen, 2009. "Trading activity, dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2122-2131, November.
    15. Cai, Fang & Howorka, Edward & Wongswan, Jon, 2008. "Informational linkages across trading regions: Evidence from foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1215-1243, December.
    16. Kaul, Aditya & Sapp, Stephen, 2006. "Y2K fears and safe haven trading of the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 760-779, August.
    17. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2016. "Stock and currency market linkages: New evidence from realized spillovers in higher moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 167-185.
    18. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    19. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Pigorsch, Uta, 2008. "Measuring and modeling risk using high-frequency data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    20. Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René, 2008. "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics we084422, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.