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Dynamic operational risk: modeling dependence and combining different sources of information

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  • Gareth W. Peters
  • Pavel V. Shevchenko
  • Mario V. Wuthrich

Abstract

In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well as within risk categories can be modeled. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference methodology, allowing for combination of internal data, external data and expert opinion in the estimation procedure. We use a specialized Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methodology known as Slice sampling to obtain samples from the resulting posterior distribution and estimate the model parameters.

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  • Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Mario V. Wuthrich, 2009. "Dynamic operational risk: modeling dependence and combining different sources of information," Papers 0904.4074, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0904.4074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Frachot, Antoine & Roncalli, Thierry & Salomon, Eric, 2004. "The Correlation Problem in Operational Risk," MPRA Paper 38052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
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    11. Chavez-Demoulin, V. & Embrechts, P. & Neslehova, J., 2006. "Quantitative models for operational risk: Extremes, dependence and aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2635-2658, October.
    12. Panjer, Harry H., 1981. "Recursive Evaluation of a Family of Compound Distributions," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 22-26, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational risk: Pros and Cons," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16064, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Should the advanced measurement approach be replaced with the standardized measurement approach for operational risk?," Papers 1607.02319, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    3. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational risk: Pros and Cons," Post-Print halshs-01391062, HAL.
    4. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Standardized Measurement Approach for Operational risk: Pros and Cons," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01391062, HAL.
    5. Martel-Escobar, M. & Hernández-Bastida, A. & Vázquez-Polo, F.J., 2012. "On the independence between risk profiles in the compound collective risk actuarial model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(8), pages 1419-1431.
    6. Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2009. "Implementing Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk," Papers 0904.1805, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    7. Peters, Gareth W. & Byrnes, Aaron D. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2011. "Impact of insurance for operational risk: Is it worthwhile to insure or be insured for severe losses?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 287-303, March.
    8. Ana Maria Popescu, 2018. "The Main Theoretical Aspects Regarding Bank Risks: Models for their Management," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 153-160, January.
    9. Gareth W. Peters & Rodrigo S. Targino & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2013. "Understanding Operational Risk Capital Approximations: First and Second Orders," Papers 1303.2910, arXiv.org.
    10. Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Young, Mark & Yip, Wendy, 2011. "Analytic loss distributional approach models for operational risk from the α-stable doubly stochastic compound processes and implications for capital allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 565-579.
    11. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Dana Luiza GRIGORESCU, 2019. "Currency risk management model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(620), A), pages 21-34, Autumn.
    12. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU & Florin Paul Costel LILEA, 2017. "Operational risk – model of analysis and control," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(11), pages 102-107, November.
    13. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Should the advanced measurement approach be replaced with the standardized measurement approach for operational risk?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01391091, HAL.
    14. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Dana Luiza GRIGORESCU & Ștefan Gabriel DUMBRAVĂ, 2020. "The main theoretical aspects regarding the capital adequacy models," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 261-270, Autumn.
    15. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Grigory Temnov, 2009. "Modeling operational risk data reported above a time-varying threshold," Papers 0904.4075, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    16. Sovan Mitra, 2013. "Scenario Generation For Operational Risk," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 163-187, July.
    17. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Should the advanced measurement approach be replaced with the standardized measurement approach for operational risk?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16065, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2010. "Implementing loss distribution approach for operational risk," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 277-307, May.
    19. Targino, Rodrigo S. & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-226.
    20. Gareth W. Peters & Aaron D. Byrnes & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2010. "Impact of Insurance for Operational Risk: Is it worthwhile to insure or be insured for severe losses?," Papers 1010.4406, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    21. Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Bertrand K. Hassani & Ariane Chapelle, 2016. "Should the advanced measurement approach be replaced with the standardized measurement approach for operational risk?," Post-Print halshs-01391091, HAL.
    22. Xu, Chi & Zheng, Chunling & Wang, Donghua & Ji, Jingru & Wang, Nuan, 2019. "Double correlation model for operational risk: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 327-339.
    23. Ana Maria POPESCU & Ștefan Virgil IACOB & Alina Eliza DABIJA, 2020. "Methods used in risk financing," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 143-158, Winter.

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