IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajk/ajkdps/173.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cognitive Uncertainty and Overconfidence

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Amelio

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous cognitive bias. There is copious evidence of overconfidence being relevant in a diverse set of economic domains. In this paper, we relate the recent concept of cognitive uncertainty with overconfidence. Cognitive uncertainty represents a decision maker's uncertainty about her action optimality. We present a simple model of overconfidence based on the concept of cognitive uncertainty. The model relates the concepts theoretically and generates testable predictions. We propose an experimental paradigm to cleanly identify such theoretical relationships. In particular, we focus on overplacement and we find that, as predicted, cognitive uncertainty is inversely related to overplacement. Exogenously manipulating cognitive uncertainty through compound choices, we are able to show a causal relationship with overplacement. Evidence on these relationships allows to link overplacement with other behavioral anomalies explained through cognitive uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Amelio, 2022. "Cognitive Uncertainty and Overconfidence," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 173, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_173_2022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moore, Don A. & Cain, Daylian M., 2007. "Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 197-213, July.
    2. Chhatwani, Malvika & Parija, Arpit Kumar, 2023. "Who invests in cryptocurrency? The role of overconfidence among American investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Sawssen Khlifi & Ghazi Zouari, 2021. "The Impact of CEO Overconfidence on Real Earnings Management: Evidence from M&A Transactions," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 402-424, September.
    4. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
    5. Bobba, Matteo & Frisancho, Veronica, 2022. "Self-perceptions about academic achievement: Evidence from Mexico City," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 58-73.
    6. Cardak, Buly A. & Martin, Vance L., 2023. "Household willingness to take financial risk: Stockmarket movements and life‐cycle effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Bo-Hung Chiou & Shen-Ho Chang, 2020. "Influence of Investment Efficiency by Managers and Accounting Conservatism on Idiosyncratic Risks to Investors," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8.
    8. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    9. Alexandridis, G. & Antypas, N. & Travlos, N., 2017. "Value creation from M&As: New evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 632-650.
    10. Leon Zolotoy & Don O’Sullivan & Keke Song, 2021. "The Role of Ethical Standards in the Relationship Between Religious Social Norms and M&A Announcement Returns," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 170(4), pages 721-742, May.
    11. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    12. Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, 2011. "Beliefs about overconfidence," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 475-500, April.
    13. Liang, Chao & Liu, Bai & Weng, Yin-Che, 2021. "“One person’s decision” or “collective voting”: Evidence of overconfident investing in Chinese listed companies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Armin Falk & Thomas Neuber & Philipp Strack, 2021. "Limited Self-Knowledge and Survey Response Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 9179, CESifo.
    15. Lu, Jing & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2023. "CEO overconfidence, lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Francesca Conte, 2018. "Understanding the Influence of CEO Tenure and CEO Reputation on Corporate Reputation: An Exploratory Study in Italy," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(3), pages 1-54, February.
    17. Prokudina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe, 2015. "Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?," Discussion Paper 2015-055, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Pirinsky, Christo, 2013. "Confidence and economic attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 139-158.
    19. Bloom, Nicholas & Van Reenen, John, 2011. "Human Resource Management and Productivity," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 19, pages 1697-1767, Elsevier.
    20. Bobba, Matteo & Frisancho, Veronica, 2016. "Learning about Oneself: The Effects of Performance Feedback on School Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 10360, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cognitive Uncertainty; Overconfidence; Overplacement; Cognitive Noise; Experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECONtribute Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econtribute.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.