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Risk management with Local Least Squares Monte-Carlo

Author

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  • Hainaut, Donatien

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

  • Akbaraly, Adnane

    (Detralytics)

Abstract

The method of least squares Monte-Carlo (LSMC) has become a standard in the insurance and financial sectors for computing the exposure of a company to market risk. The sensitive point of this procedure is the non-linear regression of simulated responses on risk factors. This article proposes a novel approach for this step, based on an a-priori segmentation of responses. Using a K-means algorithm, we identify clusters of responses that are next locally regressed on corresponding risk factors. A global function of regression is obtained by combining local models and a logistic regression. The efficiency of the Local Least squares Monte-Carlo (LLSMC) is checked in two illustrations. The first one focuses on butterfly and bull trap options in a Heston stochastic volatility model. The second illustration analyzes the exposure to risks of a participating life insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hainaut, Donatien & Akbaraly, Adnane, 2023. "Risk management with Local Least Squares Monte-Carlo," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvad:2023003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Philip Protter & Emmanuelle Clément & Damien Lamberton, 2002. "An analysis of a least squares regression method for American option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 449-471.
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    4. Bernard Lapeyre & Jérôme Lelong, 2021. "Neural network regression for Bermudan option pricing," Post-Print hal-02183587, HAL.
    5. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2019. "Pricing and hedging American-style options with deep learning," Papers 1912.11060, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    6. Anthony Floryszczak & Olivier Le Courtois & Mohamed Majri, 2016. "Inside the Solvency 2 Black Box : Net asset values and solvency capital requirements with a least-squares Monte-Carlo approach," Post-Print hal-02313445, HAL.
    7. Manuel Moreno & Javier Navas, 2003. "On the Robustness of Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) for Pricing American Derivatives," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 107-128, May.
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    9. Patrick Cheridito & John Ery & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Assessing Asset-Liability Risk with Neural Networks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Floryszczak, Anthony & Le Courtois, Olivier & Majri, Mohamed, 2016. "Inside the Solvency 2 Black Box: Net Asset Values and Solvency Capital Requirements with a least-squares Monte-Carlo approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-26.
    11. Bauer, Daniel & Reuss, Andreas & Singer, Daniela, 2012. "On the Calculation of the Solvency Capital Requirement Based on Nested Simulations," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 453-499, November.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    13. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
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    1. Ludovic Gouden`ege & Andrea Molent & Xiao Wei & Antonino Zanette, 2024. "Enhancing Valuation of Variable Annuities in L\'evy Models with Stochastic Interest Rate," Papers 2404.07658, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Least square Monte-Carlo ; risk management ; option valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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