IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucamdp/31931.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Interaction Of Working And Speculative Commodity Stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Carter, Colin A.
  • Revoredo-Giha, Cesar

Abstract

This paper models the interaction of working (also called pipeline) and speculative commodity stocks. We model working inventories (i.e., raw material inventories carried by processors) based on Ramey's (1989) model of inventories as factors of production, which allows us to represent storage under inter-temporal price backwardation, observed in commodity markets. We incorporate both speculative and working stocks in a simple model to analyze the interaction and to simulate the relationship between inter-temporal commodity price spreads and stocks. Our model replicates common price patters found in commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carter, Colin A. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2005. "The Interaction Of Working And Speculative Commodity Stocks," Environmental Economy and Policy Research Discussion Papers 31931, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucamdp:31931
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/31931/files/dp050003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.31931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Wright, Brian D, 1979. "The Effects of Ideal Production Stabilization: A Welfare Analysis Under Rational Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1011-1033, October.
    3. repec:crs:wpaper:8909 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Brennan, Donna & Williams, Jeffrey & Wright, Brian D, 1997. "Convenience Yield without the Convenience: A Spatial-Temporal Interpretation of Storage under Backwardation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1009-1022, July.
    5. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
    6. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    7. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    8. Working, Holbrook, 1933. "Price Relations Between July And September Wheat Futures At Chicago Since 1885," Wheat Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 9(06), March.
    9. Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Giganti, Mauro, 1990. "Criteria of inventory pricing," Engineering Costs and Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-3), pages 175-181, May.
    11. Bruce L. Gardner & Ramón López, 1996. "The Inefficiency of Interest-Rate Subsidies in Commodity Price Stabilization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 508-516.
    12. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-470, August.
    13. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1991. "Productivity and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Fifty Years of Economic Measurement: The Jubilee of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, pages 19-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 233-233.
    15. Lowry, M. Newton, 1988. "Working stocks and speculative stocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 311-314.
    16. repec:fth:harver:1487 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-354, June.
    18. Gray, Roger W. & Peck, Anne E., 1981. "The Chicago Wheat Futures Market: Recent Problems in Historical Perspective," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Atle Oglend & Vesa-Heikki Soini, 2020. "Equilibrium Working Curves with Heterogeneous Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 355-372, August.
    4. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    5. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    6. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19065 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    8. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
    9. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Brian D. Wright, 2012. "International Grain Reserves And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 222-260, August.
    11. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    12. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2274 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore, 2002. "Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 324-333, November.
    15. Kelley, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, 2002. "Consumption Patterns Over Pay Periods," Economic Research Papers 269469, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    16. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "The Supply Of Storage Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Brennan, Donna C. & Wright, Brian D., 1992. "Futures Markets, Storage and Convenience Yield," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146425, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2009. "How Options Provided by Storage Affect Electricity Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(3), pages 681-702, January.
    19. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    20. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    21. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
    22. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucamdp:31931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dlcamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.