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A poverty module of the MIRAGE model of the world economy

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  • Bouet, Antoine
  • Estrades, Carmen
  • Laborde, David

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to develop a poverty module of the MIRAGE model of the world economy. A new version of this model will be developed and progressively enriched with disaggregation of households into 50-500 strata (depending on the economic characteristics of the developing country and the quality of household survey) in some developing countries. In these countries, the model will disaggregate the representative household into up to 50-500 households by country, characterized by exogenous criteria like geographic place of residence, qualification and gender of the household’s head, (private vs. public or agriculture vs. industry vs. services) sector of activity… The sources of income and consumption structure will strictly reflect disaggregated statistical information coming from households’ surveys. The new model will also better capture the behavior of the public agent in terms of revenues collected and in terms of expenditures. This new version of MIRAGE will allow studying the impact of various policy shocks and identifying which households are expected to win, which households are expected to lose and why, while taking into account the reaction of households to these shocks. This version will be dynamic and will model the long term evolution of the various strata of households. It will be possible for example to introduce endogenous changes in the composition of strata (for example rural/urban migration thanks to an augmentation of the non agricultural/agricultural unskilled labor remunerations ratio or augmentation of highly qualified strata thanks to an augmentation of the skilled labor/unskilled labor remunerations ratio…) and/or transfers between households belonging to different strata (for example transfers from urban households to rural households).

Suggested Citation

  • Bouet, Antoine & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2011. "A poverty module of the MIRAGE model of the world economy," Conference papers 332072, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332072
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