IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/331763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aging, Labor Supply and Consumption - Sectoral Effects of Demographic Change in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Volz, Ute B.

Abstract

The German population is forecast to become smaller and older over the next few decades. Population aging as a consequence of demographic change will influence the economy. This paper tries to quantify the effects in a computable general equilibrium model with 17 production sectors and heterogeneous households based on German data from 2000. It analyzes the sectoral effects of population aging stemming from two effects, namely a negative labor supply shock and a change in the composition of consumption demand. To the best of our knowledge it is the first paper to combine input-output data and matching micro level, i.e. household level data for Germany. The sector affected most in this analysis is that of ‘health, education and social services’.

Suggested Citation

  • Volz, Ute B., 2008. "Aging, Labor Supply and Consumption - Sectoral Effects of Demographic Change in Germany," Conference papers 331763, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331763/files/3761.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2002. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3312, The World Bank.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    3. James Markusen & Thomas F. Rutherford & David Tarr, 2017. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 19, pages 439-458, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    5. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 177-216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694.
    7. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    8. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    9. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J, 1999. "Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution vs. Trade Liberalisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 292-311, April.
    10. Will Martin, 1993. "The Fallacy of Composition and Developing Country Exports of Manufactures," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 159-172, March.
    11. Ianchovichina, Elena & Kacker, Pooja, 2005. "Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775, The World Bank.
    12. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal, 2006. "The Emergence of China: Opportunities and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 79458 edited by Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Robert Devlin & Antoni Estevadeordal, February.
    13. World Bank, 2003. "Global Economic Prospects 2004 : Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14782.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632.
    2. Haaparanta, Pertti & Kerkela, Leena, 2007. "Trade and Aid Policies: Their Impact on Economic Development in Mozambique," Conference papers 331650, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
    4. Ianchovichina, Elena & Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2009. "Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5075, The World Bank.
    5. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Huong, Thi Lan & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "A Critical Review of Studies on the Social and Economic Impacts of Vietnam’s International Economic Integration," MPRA Paper 29789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-174, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Vietnam’s Accession to the WTO: Lessons from Past Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 61679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 174, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, April.
    10. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau & Romain Duval, 2013. "Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2231-2240, June.
    11. Somwaru, Agapi & Skully, David, 2003. "Will Special Agricultural Safeguards Advance or Retard LDC Growth and Welfare? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331147, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Miria Pigato, 2009. "Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2626.
    13. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
    14. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2010. "The growth of China and India: implications and policy reform options for Malaysia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 117-141, November.
    15. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.
    17. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    18. Mary Amiti & Caroline Freund, 2010. "The Anatomy of China's Export Growth," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 35-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    20. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.