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Aging, Labor Supply and Consumption - Sectoral Effects of Demographic Change in Germany

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  • Volz, Ute B.

Abstract

The German population is forecast to become smaller and older over the next few decades. Population aging as a consequence of demographic change will influence the economy. This paper tries to quantify the effects in a computable general equilibrium model with 17 production sectors and heterogeneous households based on German data from 2000. It analyzes the sectoral effects of population aging stemming from two effects, namely a negative labor supply shock and a change in the composition of consumption demand. To the best of our knowledge it is the first paper to combine input-output data and matching micro level, i.e. household level data for Germany. The sector affected most in this analysis is that of ‘health, education and social services’.

Suggested Citation

  • Volz, Ute B., 2008. "Aging, Labor Supply and Consumption - Sectoral Effects of Demographic Change in Germany," Conference papers 331763, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331763
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