IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nccest/37600.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level

Author

Listed:
  • Diersen, Matthew A.

Abstract

Higher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.

Suggested Citation

  • Diersen, Matthew A., 2008. "Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37600, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37600
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37600
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37600/files/confp05-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.37600?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hopper, Jared A. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Burton, Robert O., 2004. "Alfalfa Hay Quality and Alternative Pricing Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 675-690, December.
    2. Le Roy, Danny G. & Klein, Kurt K., 2003. "Say Hay And Hay West: Charity, Government And Farmer Responses To The 2002 Drought In Western Canada," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6.
    3. Bazen, Ernest F. & Roberts, Roland K. & Travis, John & Larson, James A., 2008. "Factors Affecting Hay Supply and Demand in Tennessee," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6889, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Blank, Steven C. & Orloff, Steve B. & Putnam, Daniel H., 2001. "Sequential Stochastic Production Decisions For A Perennial Crop: The Yield/Quality Tradeoff For Alfalfa Hay," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "2007 U.S Corn Production Risks: What Does History Teach Us?," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 37494, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    6. Konyar, Kazim & Knapp, Keith C., 1990. "Dynamic Regional Analysis Of The California Alfalfa Market With Government Policy Impacts," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    7. Blake, Martin J. & Clevenger, Tom, 1984. "A Linked Annual And Monthly Model For Forecasting Alfalfa Hay Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, July.
    8. Skaggs, Rhonda K. & Gorman, William D. & Gardner, J. & Crawford, Terry L., 1999. "Surveys of New Mexico Alfalfa Producers and Dairy Hay Users: Will Growth of the State's Dairy Industry be Limited by Alfalfa Availability?," Research Reports 23956, New Mexico State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business.
    9. Margaretha Rudstrom, 2004. "Determining Implicit Prices for Hay Quality and Bale Characteristics," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 552-562.
    10. Kim B. Anderson & B. Wade Brorsen, 2005. "Marketing Performance of Oklahoma Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1265-1270.
    11. Hopper, Jared A. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Burton, Robert O., Jr., 2004. "Alfalfa Hay Quality and Alternative Pricing Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Lewis A. Hagedorn & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Evelyn V. Colino, 2005. "Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1271-1279.
    13. Margaretha Rudstrom, 2004. "Determining Implicit Prices for Hay Quality and Bale Characteristics," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 552-562.
    14. Blake, Martin L. & Catlett, Lowell B., 1984. "Cross Hedging Hay Using Corn Futures: An Empirical Test," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, July.
    15. repec:ags:joaaec:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:675-690 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Curtis, Kynda R. & Cowee, Margaret W. & Kim, Man-Keun & Harris, Thomas R., 2010. "Evaluating Returns to Cool Season Grass Quality Characteristics for Niche Equine Feed Markets," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 28(1).
    2. Diersen, Matthew A., 2008. "Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37600, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Boyer, Christopher N. & Griffith, Andrew P. & Roberts, Roland K. & Savoy, Hubert J. & Leib, Brian G., 2014. "Managing Nitrate Levels in Bermudagrass Hay: Implications for Net Returns," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2014, pages 1-16.
    4. Boyer, Christopher N. & Griffith, Andrew P. & Roberts, Roland K. & Savoy, Hubert J. & Leib, Brian G., 2013. "Nitrate Toxicity in Bermudagrass Hay and Its Effect on Net Returns," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142716, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Waseem AHMAD* & Tanvir AHMED** & Bashir AHMAD***, 2017. "HEDONIC PRICING OF MILK AT RETAIL LEVEL: A Case of Faisalabad, Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 29-39.
    6. Hyun Seok Kim & B. Wade Brorsen, 2012. "Can real option values explain apparent storage at a loss?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2081-2090, June.
    7. Dietz, Sarah N. & Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Dant, Madeline & Burdine, Kenneth & Mark, Tyler, 2017. "Hedonic Price Analysis of Hay Auction Prices in Kentucky," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252762, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    10. Xiao Cheng & Sunze Wang & Kefan Zhang & Ting Jiang & Yang Ye & Yuan Lu & Yajie Yu & Huiqing Wei & Zijun Zhang & Yafeng Huang, 2024. "Hay Yield, Chemical Composition, and In Vitro Digestibility of Five Varieties of Common Vetch," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-12, September.
    11. Tabesh, Hamid, 1987. "Hedging price risk to soybean producers with futures and options: a case study," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000010306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Hopper, Jared A. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Burton, Robert O., Jr., 2004. "Alfalfa Hay Quality and Alternative Pricing Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2010. "Alternative 2010 Corn Production Scenarios and Policy Implications," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 183524, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    14. Lewis T. Cunningham & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Gender differences in marketing styles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, January.
    15. Konyar, Kazim & Knapp, Keith, 1986. "Demand for Alfalfa Hay in California," Research Reports 251941, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation.
    16. Kamini Yadav & Hatim M. E. Geli, 2021. "Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, December.
    17. Joseph P. Janzen & Nicholas D. Paulson & Juo‐Han Tsay, 2024. "Commodity storage and the cost of capital: Evidence from Illinois grain farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 526-546, March.
    18. Konyar, Kazim & Howitt, Richard E., 2000. "The Cost Of The Kyoto Protocol To U.S. Crop Production: Measuring Crop Price, Regional Acreage, Welfare, And Input Substitution Effects," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    19. Knapp, Keith & Konyar, Kazim, 1990. "A Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium Model of the California Alfalfa Market," Research Reports 251936, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation.
    20. Blank, Steven C. & Orloff, Steve B. & Putnam, Daniel H., 2001. "Sequential Stochastic Production Decisions For A Perennial Crop: The Yield/Quality Tradeoff For Alfalfa Hay," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-17, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.