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Credit Risk Models: An Application to Agricultural Lending

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  • Katchova, Ani L.
  • Barry, Peter J.

Abstract

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The theoretical models combine Merton’s distance-to-default approach with credit value-at-risk methodologies. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and KMV, are illustrated using farm financial data. Expected and unexpected losses for a portfolio of farms are calculated using probability of default, loss given default, and portfolio risk measures. The results show that credit quality and correlations among farms play a significant role in risk pricing for agricultural lenders.

Suggested Citation

  • Katchova, Ani L. & Barry, Peter J., 2003. "Credit Risk Models: An Application to Agricultural Lending," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132519, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nc2003:132519
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.132519
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    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value‐at‐Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, June.
    2. Stokes, Jeffrey R. & Brinch, Brian M., 2001. "Valuing Agricultural Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Featherstone, Allen M. & Schurle, Bryan W. & Duncan, Steven S. & Postier, Kevin D., 1993. "Clearance Sales In The Farmland Market?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jill M. Phillips & Ani L. Katchova, 2004. "Credit score migration analysis of farm businesses: conditioning on business cycles and migration trends," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 64(1), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Zhang, Tianwei & Katchova, Ani L., 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis of Illinois Farm Business: Possible Impacts of Farm Business Cycle," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19292, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Tingqiang Chen & Suyang Wang, 2023. "Incomplete information model of credit default of micro and small enterprises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2956-2974, July.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

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