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Credit Score Migration Analysis Of Farm Businesses: Conditioning On Business Cycles And Migration Trends

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  • Phillips, Jill
  • Katchova, Ani L.

Abstract

This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses. We test whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Our results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. We also test whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. Our results show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Jill & Katchova, Ani L., 2004. "Credit Score Migration Analysis Of Farm Businesses: Conditioning On Business Cycles And Migration Trends," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20136, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20136
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    1. Katchova, Ani L. & Barry, Peter J., 2003. "Credit Risk Models: An Application to Agricultural Lending," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132519, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    4. Til Schuermann & Yusuf Jafry, 2003. "Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    6. Escalante, Cesar L. & Park, Timothy A. & Barry, Peter J. & Demir, Ebru, 2002. "Determinants Of Farm Credit Migration Rates," 2002 Regional Committee NC-221, October 7-8, 2002, Denver, Colorado 132368, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    7. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katchova, Ani L. & Nam, Sangjeong, 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis Focused on Farm Business Characteristics and Business Cycles," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19451, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Rusiana, Hofner & Brewer, Brady & Escalante, Cesar & Dodson, Charles, 2016. "Transition Probability Approach in the Evaluation of Relative Financial Strength and Endurance of Farm Service Borrowers under Recessionary Conditions," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229813, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Behrens, Andrew & Pederson, Glenn D., 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Patterns of Agricultural Loans," 2005 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 3-4, 2005, Minneapolis, Minnesota 132739, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    4. Gunderson, Michael A. & Gloy, Brent A. & LaDue, Eddy L., 2005. "Pricing Agricultural Loans to Account for Long-Term Default Risk," 2005 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 3-4, 2005, Minneapolis, Minnesota 132750, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    5. Dixon, Bruce L. & Ahrendsen, Bruce L. & Landerito, Aiko O. & Hamm, Sandra J. & Danforth, Diana M., 2010. "Determinants of FSA Direct Loan Borrowers' Financial Improvement and Loan Servicing Actions," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19.
    6. Rusiana, Hofner D. & Escalante, Cesar L., 2015. "The Effects of Business Maturity, Experience and Size on the Farms’ Economic Vitality: A Credit Migration Analysis of Farm Service Agency Borrowers," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205282, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Hofner D. Rusiana & Cesar L. Escalante & Brady E. Brewer, 2024. "Financial Resilience of Young and Beginning Farmers under Recession: A Transition Probability Approach," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-5.
    8. Pederson, Glenn D. & Chu, Yu-Szu & Richardson, D. Wynn, 2011. "Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure: The Literature and the Methods in Use," Staff Papers 107483, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

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