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Global water demand projections: past, present and future

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  • Amarasinghe, Upali A.
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir

Abstract

A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.201006
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    5. Arowoshegbe, Amos & Emeni, Francis & Uniamikogbo, Emmanuel, 2018. "Impact Of Water Accounting On Water Supply In Nigeria," International Journal of Contemporary Accounting Issues-IJCAI (formerly International Journal of Accounting & Finance IJAF), The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), vol. 7(2), pages 160-183, December.
    6. A. Narayanamoorthy & N. Devika & M. Bhattarai, 2016. "More Crop and Profit per Drop of Water: Drip Irrigation for Empowering Distressed Small Farmers," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(1), pages 83-90, January.
    7. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235503, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
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    10. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2017. "Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use," Conference papers 332848, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Xiao-Jun Wang & Jian-Yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Wei Xie & Chao-Yang Du & Xiao-Chuan Shang & Xu Zhang, 2018. "Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 911-924, April.
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