Arroz Transgénico en Uruguay: un modelo de simulación para estimar los beneficios económicos potenciales

In small developing countries such as Uruguay, the potential economic benefits to be gained by the adoption of new agricultural technologies based on biotechnology are limited by a reduced productive base. This work assesses the potential economic impact of a herbicide-resistant transgenic rice variety, where the market power of the multinational firm owning the variety affects adoption rates through the monopoly margin exerted in the purchase price of the seed. We employ stochastic simulation methods to study outcome variations due to changes in the technological parameters and the adoption rates. Producer’s economic surplus averaged US$1.82 million, while the monopolistic gain is US$0.55 million. These relatively small economic profits suggest that, without public policy strategies for increasing the potential profits and reducing research costs, the multinational companies are not willing to invest significant resources for developing a transgenic variety adapted to local conditions. The alliances with national institutions and the access to expanded regional markets also contribute to increase the private incentives in R&D.