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A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia

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  • Mason, Nicole M.
  • Jayne, Thomas S.
  • Chapoto, Antony
  • Myers, Robert J.

Abstract

The new variant famine (NVF) hypothesis postulates that HIV/AIDS is eroding agrarian livelihoods and making rural communities more sensitive and less resilient to drought and other shocks. Although it has not previously been subjected to rigorous econometric testing, NVF has become a high profile but controversial part of the debate on HIV/AIDS and food crises. In this paper, an econometric analysis using panel data from Zambia reveals that HIV/AIDS exacerbates the effects of drought on crop output per hectare among smallholder farming communities in low rainfall areas and where land-to-labor ratios are high. These findings support the NVF hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Chapoto, Antony & Myers, Robert J., 2009. "A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51485, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51485
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51485
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    1. David Mather & Cynthia Donovan & T. S. Jayne & Michael Weber, 2005. "Using Empirical Information in the Era of HIV/AIDS to Inform Mitigation and Rural Development Strategies: Selected Results from African Country Studies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1289-1297.
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    4. Mather, David & Donovan, Cynthia & Weber, Michael T. & de Marrule, Higino Francisco & Alage, Albertina, 2004. "Household Responses to Prime Age Adult Mortality in Rural Mozambique: Implications for HIV/AIDS Mitigation Efforts and Rural Economic Development Policies," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 56060, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
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    6. Megill, David J., 2004. "Recommendations on Sample Design for Post-Harvest Surveys in Zambia Based on the 2000 Census," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 54468, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Carolyn Baylies, 2002. "The Impact of AIDS on Rural Households in Africa: A Shock Like Any Other?," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 611-632, September.
    8. Donovan, Cynthia & Bailey, Linda & Mpyisi, Edson & Weber, Michael T., 2003. "Prime-Age Adult Morbidity and Mortality in Rural Rwanda: Effects on Household Income, Agricultural Production, and Food Security Strategies," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55387, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    9. Antony Chapoto & T. S. Jayne, 2008. "Impact of AIDS-Related Mortality on Farm Household Welfare in Zambia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 327-374, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kusunose, Yoko & Tembo, Solomon & Mason, Nicole M., 2015. "Do crop income shocks widen disparities in smallholder agricultural investments? Panel survey evidence from Zambia," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205555, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2014. "The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1320, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty; International Development;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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