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Assessing The Potential Impact Of Bt Maize In Kenya Using A Gis Based Model

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  • De Groote, Hugo
  • Overholt, William
  • Ouma, James Okuro
  • Mugo, Stephen

Abstract

The Insect Resistant Maize for Africa (IRMA) project is currently developing Bt maize for Kenya. So far, Bt genes with resistance to Chilo partellus, Chilo orichalcociliellus, Eldana Sacharina, and Sesamia calamistis, four of the five major stemborers were successfully incorporated into elite CIMMYT maize inbred line (CML216) and tested in insect bioassays in Kenya. Participatory Rural Appraisals showed that stem borers are indeed a major pest problems for farmers. Four seasons of on-farm crop loss assessment showed an average crop loss of 13.5%, or 0.4 million tons, valued at US$ 80 million. If the project manages to find a Bt gene that is effective to the fifth stemborer, Busseola fusca, adoption rates are likely to be high, and therefore the returns. Under standard assumptions, the economic surplus of the project is calculated at $ 208 million over 25 years (66% of which is consumer surplus) as compared to a cost of $5.7 million. Geographically, the project should focus on the high production moist-transitional zone. However, if such gene cannot be found, Bt maize technology would only be effective in the low potential areas, and adoption rates would be fairly low, although benefits would still exceed costs.

Suggested Citation

  • De Groote, Hugo & Overholt, William & Ouma, James Okuro & Mugo, Stephen, 2003. "Assessing The Potential Impact Of Bt Maize In Kenya Using A Gis Based Model," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25854, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25854
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.25854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paarlberg, Robert L., 2000. "Governing the GM crop revolution: policy choices for developing countries," 2020 vision discussion papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Kipkoech, Anderson Kipruto & Schulthess, Fritz & Yabann, Wilson K. & Kipsat, Mary J. & Mithofer, Dagmar, 2010. "Measuring the economic value of redistributing parasitoids for the control of the maize stemborer Busseola fusca Fuller (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Kenya," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(2), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Horna, J. Daniela & Smale, Melinda & Al-Hassan, Ramatu M. & Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Timpo, Samuel E., 2008. "Insecticide Use on Vegetables in Ghana: Would GM Seed Benefit Farmers?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6506, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Kipkoech, Anderson Kipruto & Schulthess, Fritz & Yabann, Wilson K. & Kipsat, Mary J. & Mithofer, Dagmar, 2010. "Measuring the economic value of redistributing parasitoids for the control of the maize stemborer Busseola fusca Fuller (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Kenya," Journal of Cooperatives, NCERA-210, vol. 4(2), June.
    4. Horna, Daniela & Zambrano, Patricia & Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Sengooba, Theresa & Kyotalimye, Miriam, 2013. "Genetically modified cotton in Uganda: An ex ante evaluation," IFPRI book chapters, in: Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Gruère, Guillaume P. & Sithole-Niang, Idah (ed.), Genetically modified crops in Africa: Economic and policy lessons from countries south of the Sahara, chapter 3, pages 61-97, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Owuor, George & Smale, Melinda & De Groote, Hugo, 2004. "Crop Biotechnology For Africa: Who Will Gain From Bt Maize In Kenya?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20379, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Tavneet Suri, 2009. "Selection and Comparative Advantage in Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 15346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tavneet Suri, 2006. "Selection and Comparative Advantage in Technology Adoption," Working Papers 944, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. Suri, Tavneet, 2006. "Selection and Comparative Advantage in Technology Adoption," Center Discussion Papers 28445, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    9. Nyangena, Wilfred & Juma, Ogada Maurice, 2014. "Impact of Improved Farm Technologies on Yields: The Case of Improved Maize Varieties and Inorganic Fertilizer in Kenya," RFF Working Paper Series dp-14-02-efd, Resources for the Future.
    10. Odhiambo, Benjamin & Bergvinson, David & Mugo, Stephen & De Groote, Hugo, 2004. "Debunking The Myths Of Gm Crops For Africa: The Case Of Bt Maize In Kenya," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19918, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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