IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemcc/12046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the USA," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12046, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcc:12046
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/12046/files/wp060117.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.12046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Tol, Richard S.J. & Pacala, Stephen W. & Socolow, Robert H., 2009. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 425-445, May.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    4. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2005. "Analysing Convergence with a Multi-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model: PPP versus Mer," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(6), pages 901-921, November.
    6. David Henderson, 2005. "The Treatment of Economic Issues by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(2), pages 321-326, March.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Miketa, Asami & Mulder, Peter, 2005. "Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors: Patterns of growth and convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 429-453, May.
    9. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    10. Toth, Ferenc L. & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2006. "Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    12. Palmer, Karen & Burtraw, Dallas, 2005. "Cost-effectiveness of renewable electricity policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 873-894, November.
    13. Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
    14. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Arnulf Grübler & Stuard Gaffin & Tae Tong Jung & Tom Kram & Tsuneyuki Morita & Hugh Pitcher & Keywan Riahi & Michael Schlesinger & P. R. Shukla & Detlef van Vuuren & Ged Davis &, 2003. "IPCC Sres Revisited: A Response," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(2), pages 187-214, May.
    15. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1966. "Objectives, Constraints and Outcomes in Optimal Growth Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 212, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Arnulf Grübler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Joe Alcamo & Ged Davis & Joergen Fenhann & Bill Hare & Shunsuke Mori & Bill Pepper & Hugh Pitcher & Keywan Riahi & Hans-Holger Rogner & Emilo Lebre La Rovere & , 2004. "Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(1), pages 11-24, January.
    17. Nordhaus, William, 2007. "Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchasing power parity or market exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 349-372, May.
    18. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    20. Markandya, Anil & Pedroso-Galinato, Suzette & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2006. "Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 121-145, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Lixin & Jin, Rulei, 2012. "Theoretical exploration of carbon emissions dynamic evolutionary system and evolutionary scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 376-386.
    2. Romeo, Luis M. & Calvo, Elena & Valero, Antonio & De Vita, Alessia, 2009. "Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1341-1350.
    3. Wang, Xiaolei & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "How to reduce CO2 emissions in China׳s iron and steel industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1496-1505.
    4. Yuhong Wang & Xin Yao & Pengfei Yuan, 2015. "Strategic Adjustment of China’s Power Generation Capacity Structure Under the Constraint of Carbon Emission," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(3), pages 421-435, October.
    5. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Opper, Sonja & Khalid, Usman, 2018. "Are capitalists green? Firm ownership and provincial CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 349-359.
    6. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
    7. Dritan Osmani, "undated". "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
    8. Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Incomplete Environmental Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and Emissions Leakage," NBER Working Papers 14421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Xuesong Sun & Muru Li & Suyun Hou & Chunwang Zhang, 2023. "Research on the Spatial Network Characteristics, Synergistic Emission Reduction Effects and Mechanisms of Carbon Emission in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Dou, Yue & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "Quantifying the impacts of energy inequality on carbon emissions in China: A household-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    2. Dimitrios PAPARAS & Christian RICHTER & Alexandros PAPARAS, 2015. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth, Empirical Evidence in European Union," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 239-268, December.
    3. Marcus Berliant & Ping Wang, 2005. "Dynamic Urban Models: Agglomeration and Growth," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Urban Dynamics and Growth: Advances in Urban Economics, pages 533-581, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Pengfei Wang & Danyang Xie, 2018. "Trade, Sectorial Reallocation, and Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 49-74, May.
    5. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    6. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed & Tsimisaraka Raymondo Sandra Marcelline & Sabi Couscous Mouhamadou Nazirou, 2021. "Empirical Study of the Impact of Governance on Economic Structural Change: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(8), pages 260-277.
    7. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It´s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 061-114, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Martin Zagler, 2009. "Economic growth, structural change, and search unemployment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 63-78, January.
    9. Stijepic, Denis, 2019. "A topological approach to structural change analysis and an application to long-run labor allocation dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 453-462.
    10. Jens J. Krüger, 2008. "Productivity And Structural Change: A Review Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 330-363, April.
    11. Fedderke, Johannes W., 2018. "Exploring unbalanced growth: Understanding the sectoral structure of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-189.
    12. Thomas M. Steger, 2003. "Economic Growth and Sectoral Change under Resource Reallocation Costs," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 03/30, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    14. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2022. "Endogenous sector–biased technological change and industrial policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Peter Mulder & Henri Groot, 2007. "Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 85-112, January.
    16. Anne Villamil & Xiaobing Wang & Yuxiang Zou, 2020. "Growth and development with dual labor markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 801-826, December.
    17. Matthias Figo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Strukturwandel und regionales Wachstum - wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste als Wachstumsmotor?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 145, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    18. Bertola, Giuseppe, 2000. "Macroeconomics of distribution and growth," Handbook of Income Distribution, in: A.B. Atkinson & F. Bourguignon (ed.), Handbook of Income Distribution, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 477-540, Elsevier.
    19. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2021. "Climate Growth Theory," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2021 0084, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    20. Garcia-Torres, M. Abraham, 2009. "Habit Formation, Demand and Growth through Product Innovation," MERIT Working Papers 2009-012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemcc:12046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.