IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa116/95235.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tabeau, Andrzej A.
  • Hatna, E.
  • Verburg, Peter H.

Abstract

The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Hatna, E. & Verburg, Peter H., 2010. "Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis," 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy 95235, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.95235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/95235/files/156%20completo.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.95235?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241.
    2. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bingkui Qiu & Shasha Lu & Min Zhou & Lu Zhang & Yu Deng & Ci Song & Zuo Zhang, 2015. "A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Changgang Ma & Min Zhou, 2018. "A GIS-Based Interval Fuzzy Linear Programming for Optimal Land Resource Allocation at a City Scale," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 143-166, January.
    4. Xin Lao & Tiyan Shen & Hengyu Gu, 2018. "Prospect on China’s Urban System by 2020: Evidence from the Prediction Based on Internal Migration Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Min Zhou & Shukui Tan & Lizao Tao & Xiangbo Zhu & Ghulam Akhmat, 2015. "An interval fuzzy land-use allocation model (IFLAM) for Beijing in association with environmental and ecological consideration under uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2269-2290, November.
    6. Xinli Ke & Liye Wang & Yanchun Ma & Kunpeng Pu & Ting Zhou & Bangyong Xiao & Jiahe Wang, 2019. "Impacts of Strict Cropland Protection on Water Yield: A Case Study of Wuhan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Senetra Adam & Szczepańska Agnieszka & Wasilewicz-Pszczółkowska Monika, 2014. "Analysis of changes in the land use structure of developed and urban areas in Eastern Poland," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 24(24), pages 1-12, June.
    8. Zambon, Ilaria & Benedetti, Anna & Ferrara, Carlotta & Salvati, Luca, 2018. "Soil Matters? A Multivariate Analysis of Socioeconomic Constraints to Urban Expansion in Mediterranean Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 173-183.
    9. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    10. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The political economy of ethnolinguistic cleavages," Working Papers 2009-17, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    3. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Seung-Whan Choi & James A. Piazza, 2017. "Foreign Military Interventions and Suicide Attacks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 271-297, February.
    5. Minh Quang Dao, 2012. "Government expenditure and growth in developing countries," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 12(1), pages 77-82, January.
    6. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 190, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. David M. Waguespack & Robert Salomon, 2016. "Quality, Subjectivity, and Sustained Superior Performance at the Olympic Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(1), pages 286-300, January.
    8. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "Uruguay - Equality of Opportunity : Achievements and Challenges," World Bank Publications - Reports 2985, The World Bank Group.
    10. Nicola Banks, 2014. "What works for young people's development? A Case Study of BRAC's Empowerment and Livelihoods for Adolescent Girls programme in Uganda and Tanzania," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21214, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    11. Kornai, János, 2022. "Innováció és dinamizmus. Kölcsönhatás a rendszerek és a technikai haladás között [Innovation and dynamism. The reciprocal effect between systems and technical advance]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 133-173.
    12. Axel Dreher & Stephan Klasen & James Raymond Vreeland & Eric Werker, 2013. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically Driven Aid Less Effective?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 157-191.
    13. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    14. Sharafat Ali, 2013. "The Small and Medium Enterprises and Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(2), pages 25-301:8, July.
    15. Menyah, Kojo & Nazlioglu, Saban & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2014. "Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 386-394.
    16. Philip G. Pardey & Jason M. Beddow & Terrance M. Hurley & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Vernon R. Eidman, 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 571-589, October.
    17. Wah, Saw Htay, 2009. "Is corruption endogenous to foreign direct investment in resource-rich developing economies?," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800002044, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. M. Danquah & B. Ouattara, 2014. "Productivity Growth, Human Capital And Distance To Frontier In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 27-48, December.
    19. Daniel W Gingerich, 2014. "Yesterday’s heroes, today’s villains: Ideology, corruption, and democratic performance," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(2), pages 249-282, April.
    20. James Roumasset & Christopher Wada, 2012. "The Economics of Groundwater," Working Papers 201211, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Labor and Human Capital;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.