IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/cudasp/14763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Analysis In Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Tauer, Loren W.

Abstract

Recent developments in investment analysis and their relevancy in agricultural investment assessment are discussed. The Net Present Value model can be modified to incorporate the value of strategic management of an investment into the initial evaluation of that investment. Since these decisions can be modeled as call and put options, the mathematics of financial options has been applied to these investment decisions, and referred to as real options analysis. It is shown how contingent claims analysis can be used to value these real options. Contingent claims analysis uses a risk-free discount rate, since risk is incorporated into option valuation using computed risk-neutral probabilities obtained from a replicating portfolio correlated to the discounted income stream. Many net returns in agricultural activities are correlated with prices of underlying agricultural commodities, suggesting the potential use of contingent claims analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tauer, Loren W., 2000. "Investment Analysis In Agriculture," Staff Papers 14763, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:cudasp:14763
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.14763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14763/files/sp0003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.14763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    3. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    4. Amy Purvis & William G. Boggess & Charles B. Moss & John Holt, 1995. "Technology Adoption Decisions under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Appproach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 541-551.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tauer, Loren W., 2000. "Estimating Risk-Adjusted Interest Rates for Dairy Farms," Staff Papers 121149, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Staff Papers 121146, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    3. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-13, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2001. "Reale Optionen und Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre – oder: Kann man mit der Optionspreistheorie arbitrieren?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(08), pages 1-10.
    2. Hardmann, PA & Darroch, MAG & Ortmann, GF, 2003. "Evaluating Potential Investments In The Pink Lady Apple Cultivar Under Uncertainty And Irreversibility," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 42(3).
    3. Thu Phuong Pham & Anh Tuan Bui, 2007. "The time to shut down," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-14.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Faninam, Farzan & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M. & Vera, J.C., 2023. "Real Options Models without Single-Investment Threshold Behavior," Discussion Paper 2023-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    7. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    8. Faninam, Farzan, 2023. "The Impact of Multiple Investment Opportunities on the Initial Investment," Other publications TiSEM 86ec19ad-bd36-470a-88c7-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Hanno Dihle, 2015. "Real Options in a Ramsey style Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 32, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    11. Barham, Bradford L. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1997. "Sunk Costs and Resource Mobility: Implications for Economic and Policy Analysis," 1997 Conference, August 10-16, 1997, Sacramento, California 197060, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Michele Moretto & Gianpaolo Rossini, 2008. "Entry Strategies of Partnerships versus Conventional Firms," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 159-172, July.
    13. Rosella Levaggi & Moretto Michele, 2008. "Investment In Hospital Care Technology Under Different Purchasing Rules: A Real Option Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 159-181, April.
    14. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2009. "The irreversibility premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 390-408, April.
    15. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    16. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    17. Song, Sangcheol, 2015. "Exchange rate challenges, flexible intra-firm adjustments, and subsidiary longevity," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 36-45.
    18. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 442-461, April.
    19. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    20. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:cudasp:14763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dacorus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.