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Technology Adoption Decisions under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Appproach

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  • Amy Purvis
  • William G. Boggess
  • Charles B. Moss
  • John Holt

Abstract

Empirical results demonstrate that uncertainty about costs and requirements for environmental compliance is an important determinant of dairy producers& investment behavior. Ex ante forecasting of how uncertainty and irreversibility are likely to affect producers& responsiveness to agricultural technologies has implications for the design of environmental policies. Simulation modeling methods are described. The empirical analysis focuses on Texas producers& propensity to adopt free-stall dairy housing. Free-stall investments offer advantages for both productivity-augmentation and pollution abatement, yet uncertainty and irreversibility are obstacles to adoption. Implications of this ex ante paradigm for policy design and implementation are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Amy Purvis & William G. Boggess & Charles B. Moss & John Holt, 1995. "Technology Adoption Decisions under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Appproach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 541-551.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:77:y:1995:i:3:p:541-551.
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